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Stock Market- It’s Merrily We Go Along – Until We Don’t-Are You Ready? Read On!!

December 23 2021 Option Professor Observations & Opinions

If someone told you that in the next 90 days if you touch this electric switch you would feel a painful shock and if they said that within 120 days they felt 100% certain you will get that painful shock…would you keep playing with that switch without caution? If you’ve kept up with the shows & ALERTS; you know we said the correction on SPX should stop around the 24 month SMA on the 5 yr graph around 4500-4530 area which it did and we have had a great rally to close out the week close to SPX all time highs. Some money managers are suggesting going to CASH with 10% to 30% and up to a high of 70% of their stock portfolios in the next 30-90 days!! Some said they may even sell some into this week’s rally! The 2 school of thoughts are as follows #1 the stock market will rip to the upside in January as we get Q4 earnings (expected up 21%), massive liquidity from pensions and new year investors, a break in Omicron, and a big steepening in the yield curve amongst other bullish factors converging……#2 reasoning is that the Fed is withdrawing monetary stimulus & Joe Manchin is reducing fiscal stimulus (only 9% of the bill was infrastructure) while growth will back off the breakneck speed and the consumer has spent down their savings and stimulus money (savings levels back to at or below 2019 levels). Margin pressure and valuation pressures may unfold (SPX earnings 2.30 X 18 = 4100). We have an Election Year and the first half tends to be rocky (flat to slightly negative) followed by a big 2nd jump up. We may be early in the re-opening trade which may be more 2nd half of 2022 when travel opens up more but the structural shortage in energy with the supply demand dynamics of health care combined with the flight to large cap growth/tech (weather proof) seems to be the call for first half 2022. The VIX has been great for us this year as when we enter the 25-35 range it’s indicated a great buy for SPX and in the 14-17 range a reasonable trim signal. Volatility in December has been historic and the swings on the VIX has been unsettling BUT we did go home with a 17 handle so we may see some selling in the week ahead and if we do it could create a buy prior to the New Year……after that we will monitor to see if trimming to create some dry powder for late Q1 or Q2 opportunities make sense..2022=being nimble. Technical Everyone’s pushing out on the risk curve to generate income and gains…..since when does that mentality end well??

OPTIONS- Have questions on tactics–writing or buying-hedging or speculating ask us at [email protected]

Stock Market

It was a rising tide lifts all boats this week but caution that a reality check comes in when least expected. In 2022; expectations for cyclicals, financials, industrials, and materials ect may be tied to seeing the yield curve steepen and yields rise on the 10yr…no happening now and not in the direction the TLT is trending. So health care energy and FANG plus MSFT may see a lot of action. We have a FOCUS LIST on where we think positioning will be best served.

Bond Market

Yields rose a bit this week but nothing to write home about as foreigners can’t get enough of our debt with the double whammy of Dollar appreciations and much better yields than their homeland. Preferreds and short term loans along with high yields rebounded nicely. Yields are stuck. We can help with ideas for INCOME so go to optionprofessor.com

US Dollar/ International Markets

We told you the Dollar would be firm from 88-90 DXY and it has done exactly as expected but lately there has been some cracks in the armor around 97 DXY. If we hold 95-93; we continue to appreciate BUT if we break 90 a strong run OUT of the Dollar may commence. INTERNATIONAL markets may be the big story in 2022 for a number of reasons including CHINA will be EASING & stimulating because they saved their ammo for now as opposed to the Fed who now is boxed into a corner unless we tank the stock market/inflation rolls dead both long shots as of todays numbers. So look for China to revert back to the mean and if we have a synchronized global recovery it could be boom time for Europe & Pacific Rim. Get our focus list by going to optionprofessor.com and submit questions!

Crude Oil Natural Gas

The oil correction has come and gone and OPEC meets Jan 4 and they’re not too keen on backwardation while the Nat Gas is trying to relaunch going into what looks to be a cold winter….Get our ideas now….optionprofesor.com

Gold Silver Copper Bitcoin Crypto

We told everyone that trading and sustaining ABOVE 1850 & 25 bucks needed to turn the Gold & Silver ships…getting closer while the structural shortage in Copper continues GET OUR IDEAS…..we always maintain to wait for 30%-50% drops in Bitcoin & Ethereum before adding and we just saved those who listen the headache of buying at the highs so LEARN where we think values are compelling go to optionprofessor.com and take advantage of our knowledge

Soybeans Sugar Coffee

Critical time for all 3 as Soybeans had the correction into the 12 neighborhood where we thought it was a buy and now it’s popped while Sugar & Coffee had huge run ups (we spoke of these a year ago) and are trying to maintain values.

Remember All investing involves risk and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm/broker to determine your own suitability and risk tolerance, Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information and opinions are for informational purposes only It s NOT advice.

Stocks Dive on 3X Witching-What Next? Bounce on Short Covering? Read & Learn

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December 17th 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

We got what we expected out of the Fed last week with 2x taper ending in March and 3 “hikes” next year. The stock market initially went euphoric with a run above SPX 4700 only to tank as the tech sector which got slammed then stabilized while financials energy value dividends gave back their advance by the end of the week… triple witching. Okay; that’s what has happened..what’s the reality of what is coming next. OUR VIEW is that the 10 yr Treasury and money markets are still a joke so if you want a guaranteed money loser vs inflation… have at it. The new variant is problematic (Radio City & Hamilton cancelled performance in NYC)……but if South Africa is an indicator the situation rolls over and deaths & hospitalizations are manageable. Retail sales were skinny in Nov but Oct was revised upward big time (maybe early shoppers) BUT without stimulus/unemployment the less fortunate among us (the spenders) may be less inclined to spend. The fed balance sheet at $9 trillion coming down may be offset by 2 factors which are less issuance next year (maybe all this selling is to create tax bills-revenue for govt) and more important the US Dollar is the big dog and foreigners are buying up our debt like mad (almost 70% of auction last week was foreign buyers). They get a massive increase on the local yield and they get a currency play. The ECB is easing and Japanese does nothing and do you want your $$ in the Yuan (ask Jack Ma how that’s worked out!). We feel we may be in a 2010-2015 repeat when the Fed promised hike but the data went south and so did those plans. Inflation may not go away on its own as shelter inflation (rents ect.) plus wage inflation is sticky. Maybe if stocks cool the employment participation index rises. We currently believe 3 MAJOR themes for 2022 makes sense……#1…investors will want income on their investments and reasonable P/E ratios as the look for the return of their capital…..#2….the heyday of durable goods purchases (Home Depot ect) will be replaced by money going into services (travel-leisure-re-openings) as the consumer is still in great shape and wages are flowing and global recovery continues plus the old song goes “People Just Want to Have Fun!”….Finally #3….A hedged Portfolio in 2022 may make a lot of sense as it is a Mid Term Election Year and at some point the market will get whacked as Long Term Moving Averages on SPX are about SPX 4200-3700-3500 and if Fair Value P/E is 18X at 2.30 earnings could put us at SPX 4100. The drop does happen earlier rather than later historically. We hit SPX support at 4600 Friday (50 day moving average)….more underneath at 4575-4500 and worst case at 4400 while closes ABOVE 4650 could very well start the engines for year end and January Effect prices..LEARN MORE NOW!

Go to optionprofessor.com and enter your email and we can provide our Focus List for 2022…Now’s the Time to Do It!

Investors-Having Tough Times-Not Your Fault-We Can Help..Read On!…Learn More!

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December 11th 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

After a week in Hawaii…..good to be back updating you on the markets…glad we stayed connected as our buy signal went off at VIX 35 area and SPX 4500 area about the time we were @ Mai Tai Bar @ Legendary Royal Hawaiian Hotel:) Many investors have had tougher times this year because they chased high valuation momentum/meme trades or did too much trading in their accounts or most likely for most…they were way UNDERINVESTED due to lack of a discipline. We do our best to follow trends (moving averages-RSI’s) and look at OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD areas to TRIM or ADD. RIGHT NOW..we are looking at the Growth to Value Ratio which is near the highest level since about October 2000 and may be plateauing. Baked into current prices is a Fed slow withdrawal from stimulus and a consumer who still has lots of money to spend. As we go to 2022; what’s not baked into prices is Inflation in wages & rents….Faster taper & rates normalizing by the Fed…..Valuation compression/Earnings slowing…COVID..and Geo-political risks-China-Russia-Iran. We have been very correct on 2 very important things this year…NUMBER #1..we have maintained that the 10YR Treasury yield PEAKED at 1.75% in March and TLT EDV prices bottomed and until those March lows in prices and highs in yields are taken out….we have viewed every spike in yield as a gift. Even now; after we have thrown record inflation & GDP growth and Fed tapering at this thing…we still have the March values intact. WHY?…because the Fed works on short term rates (the 2yr Treasury has spiked in yield) and the Fed wins its wars (remember unemployment in 2020?) and they are now at war on inflation & excess valuations & pricing (Biden is getting murdered on inflation in the press). Short term rates rise (if they go above longer term rates that’s inversion which leads to recession) and it can choke off inflation at some point and that is why the 10yr & 30yr Treasury aren’t moving as the market believes the Fed wins again and inflation levels will abate. The world is round…bottlenecks & shortages don’t last forever nor does unabated price rises and demand. NUMBER #2…the second thing we have been good on.. we have believed that when the VIX spikes to the 25 to 35 area; we get a tremendous buying opportunity which is followed by a quick rebound to new highs most times a couple of weeks to a month. We have a seasonally strong period ahead for the next 6-8 weeks with liquidity coming into stocks after Jan 1 and Q4 earnings which should be dynamite. After that; the air may get thin and the move to the big names (AAPL AMZN GOOG FB MSFT ect) may continue but be joined by financials, health care, staples, dividend payers & dividend growers as Will Rogers old phrase ” I’m more interested in the return OF my money more than the return ON my money” will be the investor’s mantra before the end of 2022.

Would you like to know our opinions on the Stock Market, Fixed INCOME, Gold & Bitcoin, Crude Oil/Nat Gas, The Dollar, Agriculture & INTERNATIONAL markets??….Simply go to optionprofessor.com or [email protected] Got questions on using options to protect portfolios (covered writes-collars-married puts ect)….. let us know……

Option Professor-Stock Market-What Will Change of Fed Mandate Do to Stocks? Read

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November 24 2021 Option Professor Inc Opinions & Observations

We got a data dump of information today so we wanted to provide our views. Jobless Claims came in at the LOWEST level since 1969! The inflation numbers came in at the HIGHEST level in 31 YEARS! The consumer is making money (personal income up ) and consumer spending is strong (data shows the consumer is spending at a pace almost 3X as the pace their income is growing!). New Home sales were up. What this is telling us is that if the SPX can hold the 4630-4600 support zone (so far so good) that by year end (less than 30 trading days) and thru end of Jan Effect a strong market could persist led by consumer spending (what else?). As always; there is risks that could derail this opinion such as a spike UP thru 1.75% on the 10 yr (great for financials -high dividend-value cyclical not so much for growth & tech)….also the Dollar seem to be taking off hurting internationals….and of course all the nonsense in Washington with infrastructure, the debt ceiling, the Fed Meeting (more tapering from $15 bill to $30 bill?) ect.. We are looking further down the road and see a more murky picture in Feb-March 2022 time frame and definitely in the 2nd half of 2022. The Fed may pivot to more aggressive tactics to quell inflation (it’s huge even sans food & energy). The political hate between parties will probably get the volume turned way up (election year). Margin pressures may take a toll on earnings combined with difficult comps and bottleneck unwinds could lead to oversupply and discounts. The energy crisis may have legs. After China Beijing Olympics things could get hot between China/Taiwan. Finally; the risk of a Covid wave could re-emerge as seasonally that is when people get sick. Positioning may be complete as well. We EXPECT a significant REVERSION to the MEAN before year end 2022 and higher we go the more precipitous the drop. We maintain the mantra of Don’t Fight the Tape & Don’t Fight the Fed….keep hedging tactics handy- watch your P&L’s.

Stock Market

The SPX has tested some support 4650-4600 (closes ABOVE 4660 important) and the rate scare on the 10 yr Treasury still has us under 1.75% so far. The value trade has picked up some steam as tech & consumer discretionary (hit by margins compression) have corrected. The consumer has money and is spending so the holiday season-year end -January Effect story still has some juice but we see certain sectors as better places to be than others.

Email us at [email protected] and get our focus list

Bond Market

Yields rose sharply as some believe that the Fed is way BEHIND the curve and Powell now has a secure job so they can commence with their 2ns MANDATE of fighting inflation…also is they have to cut rates down the road…they need room. Until we see TLT UNDER 140 and 133 we remain Doubting Thomas…..nothing like price proof to convert us…..we’ll see.

Email us to LEARN how we position for INCOME with a diversified approach of product & duration

US Dollar/International Markets

We said the US Dollar had some resistance potentially in this 94-96 area (DXY) but with our yields DWARFING Europe & Asia that train has left the station. Further down the road (say 100 or so) that may change but Covid cases in Europe and ECB BOJ staying easy has given the Dollar the green light. As a result; Europe & Pacific Rim have languished despite valuations and great export news while Emerging Markets (sans Turkey to their peril) have had to raise rates.

Email us & LEARN how we are positioned in Europe Pacific Rim Emerging Markets & China pre-Olympic Beijing Feb ’22

Crude Oil Natural Gas

Crude Oil had about a 10% correction due to fears of strategic reserves output and Europe in potential lockdown. We now have seen a snapback rally as 50 million barrels USA and 5 million out of India ect. failed to impress a market that is still way under supplied and OPEC + threatens to cut supply on their side…could be a cat fight. What we do know is that investment in more supply my oil companies is not happening at a rate of concern and a tight market is expected next year BUT WTI UNDER 80-82 still suggests risk to the DOWNSIDE. Natural Gas needs closes above 5.5 to reignite although LNG is turning UP today. We have views on XOP XLE OIH and others so contact us to LEARN more

Email [email protected] to get a focus list

Gold Silver Copper Crypto

Gold & Silver popped ABOVE resistance but failed to hold water. The Dollar strength and fears of Fed hikes the culprits. BUT the major support on Gold (1760-1800 area) has held so far but really a CLOSE above recent highs at $1870 needed to get tye bulls to run. Copper is in short supply and new supplies are hard to come by as we hold $4…could be a big opportunity as build back better and global housing has a big 2022. We told readers in JULY was the time to add risk to GBTC ETHE and we always love 30%-50% pullbacks to add…ditto right now

Email us at [email protected] and we will share our specific ideas.

Soybeans Sugar Coffee

These are markets we were bullish on LAST YEAR at substantially lower levels. Right Now…Soybeans are traded UP off the 12 area we said was former resistance now support & Sugar & Coffee have been stable (some call for 3.00 Coffee)

Remember All investing ibnolves risk and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm to determine your suitability and risk tolerance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is information only It is NOT advice

Option Professor-Stock Market Steady & Ready for Takeoff? Let’s Talk-Read More

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November 20 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

Last week we told readers that the parameters on the SPX were 4724 upside and 4630 downside with the likely testing on the upside limit which is exactly what we got. We also noted that the growth to value ratio has been making new highs lately and this week was no different as Tech & Growth blew away banks industrials energy ect in net results. We noted that the 1.75% 10yr Treasury still has not been taken out despite 6% & 8% handles on the inflation readings. In fact; we got a decent RALLY in EDV & TLT which are proxies for long term yields. Covid cases are exploding in Europe and Austria going into LOCKDOWN while Germany suggests it’s not off the table. The reopening trade got hit (air-cruise-hotel-booking companies) as well as energy as slowdowns & supplies from strategic reserves haunted the market. Earnings out of China disappointed so if you wanted a dip to buy into you are getting one. EV’s and filling stations were all the rage this week BUT there will be many winners AND losers there as many people like to fill up at home so even the existing stations are not being used which has translated to losses for some firms. Some bulls have changed their tune this week and are looking for a correction…..of course it’s possible as December has lots to worry about (debt ceiling-new Fed chair?-inflation numbers-Fed meeting and accelerated tapering?) to name a few. BUT..in the next 60-90 days the biggest risk of all would be a spike in Covid cases. Sometimes there is a delayed reaction (in June July we got a spike but the market didn’t get hit until Sept). LIQUIDITY around the holidays can be thin (people out of the office) and complacency (VIX unable to sustain 14 handle) could lead to some air pockets if things break bad Companies are getting hit with higher costs which are squeezing margins (WMT-TGT). EXPECTATIONS are very big for Q4 GDP and holiday shopping but how much is baked in? The consumer has been spending (retail sales 1.7% upside surprise) which is great but consumer discretionary (XLY) reflects that and will need more juice to avoid a correction. This week we get earning from some retailers and ZM plus DE so let’s see. SPX support is at 4665-4660 then 4630 and if we break those levels–more to come? We’ve looked into a HEDGED STOCK STRATEGY which may make sense if we lose gas up here……SPX is still ABOVE support but never a bad idea to know where the raincoats are before the rain hits

Stock Market

SPX in the short run…stay above 4670-4660….and more importantly above 4600-4630….or the odds of a surprise correction may materialize….we say surprise because the bulls have lost their humility and are banking on seasonality and the January Effect 100% and are all in. In a little over 15 trading days; we will have the Fed meeting/Powell retention or not/more inflation numbers/more Covid data/the last of earnings a=AND a VIX that may blow thru 20 as stocks roll over or loses steam and we go after SPX 4800…..could be a time for vacation-come back for the joy-carnage

Email us your questions at [email protected] LEARN our opinion on positioning for year end and Q1 2022

Bond Market

The entire planet seems to be calling for higher interest rates (yields) but that has NOT been our call since March 2021 when the Treasury 10yr hit 1.75%…we said that until taken out that is your CEILING on yields and TLT 133 is the FLOOR. This view has been very good to us and reaped benefits again this week. Inflation is abating when you look at oil (down in the 70’s), China coal prices down 55% and Baltic Dry Index suggests shipping rates are hitting lower levels. Rents & wages will remain elevated but even housing price seemed to have leveled off if not faded. ECB can’t hike and the Fed seems loathe to even taper ($15 billion was supposed to be $30 billion).

Email us at [email protected] and get our views on INCOME positioning as we head into 2022!

US Dollar/International Markets

Our view in the Dollar in the last year or so is as follows…peak at 100-14 and decline ended at 88-90…we are now in a rebound rally toward 94-96 which may hold UNLESS the ECB & BOE do nothing on rates which reinforces our yield advantage and/or their economies get hit with COVID issues in which case the door opens thru 95-96 and a move toward 100 commences. International Markets are broken down to Europe (struggling to maintain strength but offers lower valuations) Pacific Rim (Japan-Korea-Australia monetizing our trade deficit but still lack momentum) and Emerging Markets ( China trying to rally before Beijing Olympics Feb’22-Latin America/others raising rates for inflation)

Email us at [email protected] to get our views on positioning in the Dollar & Overseas Markets!

Crude Oil Natural Gas

The energy boat has clearly taken on some water lately but longer term the supply dynamic still should be tight. ANY market that has a meteoric rise is prone to sharp corrections to test longer term moving averages and this is a case in point. This 75 neighborhood on WTI could find support but if broken on news an air pocket into a 60’s handle a risk. Natural Gas has had a sizeable drop as supply demand came back so a move above 5.5 would be a nod to the bulls.

[email protected] Get OUR views on positioning in the energy markets as we move into year end & 2022!

Gold Silver Copper Crypto

We have been patient with Gold & Silver and have avoided a number of head fakes & big drops in the last year. We felt when Gold broke above $1800-$1850 & Silver above $25 that we may be on the road again. Last week we suggested a pullback to the breakout point could be in the cards (we’re getting that) so NOW a close above recent highs needed to increase odds that these metals are not barbaric relics replaced by digital currencies but rather going on sustained runs to the upside. If Covid interrupts the markets and prices fade like oil just did then the timeline for the bull run altered. Copper prices had corrected toward $4 but has bounced nicely….the supplies are tight and new streams of supply hard to come by so ABOVE $4 is constructive while infrastructure cat fight in the Senate not so much. Our view on Bitcoin (GBTC & ETHE) has been pretty good as in JULY we said the correction was done and the time to take your chance was at hand. We are loathe to buy strength even if 100k target is possible so the lows this week mad some sense and 10%-15% below that would be are preferable levels…but being patient for selloffs of 30%-50% remains our main view.

Soybeans Sugar Coffee

The food shortage remains as Sugar & Coffee have remained firm (some call for $300 on Coffee). We told you that 12 area on soybeans was former resistance and could be an area for the rebound which is exactly what we have just seen.

Remember All investing involves risk and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm/broker to determine your own suitability and risk tolerance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information and Opinions are for informational purposes only. It is NOT advice.

Option Professor-Stock Market-Everyone is Betting Up-What Could Go Wrong? Read It!

DOWNLOAD the full PDF of this week’s update HERE

November 14th 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

Let’s start this week by talking to TRADERS-This week we got an early in the week hit followed by a get back up on the bike rally by Friday’s close. We told readers that three (3 ) numbers on SPX were worth a look. First we said SPX had Fibonacci projections at 4660 (38.2)& 4724 (61.8) and there was a 12 SMA on our 1yr charts at 4630. All 3 numbers were valuable to use in the short term. In the last 2 weeks; once SPX broke 4665 on the UPSIDE; we accelerated to the highs near 4720 and failed at the 4724 area. When we broke the same area earlier this week on the DOWNSIDE; we accelerated to the LOWS around our 4630 level and closed ABOVE 4660 on Friday. For the BULLS; you want to see SPX 4724 taken out to get the GREEN LIGHT on that year end rally and stay ABOVE SPX 4660-4630 (VIX contracted substantially Friday). For the BEARS; you’re close but you’ll get no cigar unless we take out SPX 4630-4600 which would open up a significant AIR POCKET that could put a SPX 4500-4400 handle on the market and pollute the punchbowl.

The story goes that the consumer has tons of money and will spend it (retail sales this week) and the stores will have enough items to sell them (business (retail) inventories this week). Q3 GDP is supposed to be a hiccup and Q4 will blow away estimates as holiday shoppers go wild with pent up demand. This will translate into huge Q4 earnings and propel the market to new highs EOY and thru the Pamplona Bull Run known as the January Effect where new money comes in. Beautiful story….looks like it will happen as money in the bank or bonds pays nothing and comes with risk on principal. Our concern is that the entire planet is looking for this to occur and so the boat is a bit one sided although we did read where flows are mixed. If in December the Fed says they are accelerating the taper due to heat about inflation and the consumer takes a pass on high prices in stores restaurants and travel; the Grinch who stole the bull run could appear. As we look into 2022; if we see bottlenecks abate (boats will unload at some point) and pent up is followed by demand destruction via higher prices/cost of living…..and we have to compare numbers to this years blowouts…caveat emptor. Of course; we don’t fight the tape and we don’t fight the Fed BUT we are WAY ABOVE LT MA’s & VERY HIGH RSI’s.

Stock Market

We notice that the Growth versus Value ratio has made new highs which we can see in tech and semis plus small caps. With yields still very low the banks have stalled out and the energy trade as well. The materials and industrials sectors have fared much better. Consumer discretionary/retail has seen some frontrunning ahead of the holiday rush. Homebuilders are coming on strong a high rents may push demand and low rates make for cheap payments.

Bond Market

We have stuck to our guns that until 1.75% on 10 yr Treasuries is taken out; we have seen the lows on TLT & EDV. The Fed make influence the short end but the long end has a lot to do with future inflationary expectations. With the technology boom toward efficiency and cost reduction plus changes in supply demand dynamics; deflation makes sense. We have a debt bubble hidden by Fed intervention and the demand from thirst for yield…will it pop in 2022? Contact us at [email protected] to get our views on the best ways to create a diversified INCOME stream

US Dollar International Markets

Our yield advantage continues to support the Dollar (DXY 95+) as well as our economic upsurge BUT we maintain the 94-96 area could be a ceiling as this area was the LOWS pre-Covid and now may be resistance. We have maintained that China may have turned in OCTOBER as we approach the Feb 2022 Olympics and much of their dirty laundry has been aired and regulatory pressures may subside. Our TRADE DEFICIT is at RECORD and our consumer has $$$ and wants to spend so doesn’t that potentially bode well for overseas markets which in some cases are DISCOUNTED to ours by historical amounts? Contact us at [email protected] and gain insight as to positioning for 2022

Crude Oil Natural Gas

The supply demand dynamic still is very tight for oil as OPEC+ says no more coming and oil companies are taking huge free cash flows and sending money back to investors (dividends) paying down debt and buying back stocks but not investing on more supplies. Prices have backed off in oil but unless we start seeing a 70’s handle another rally may be in the offing. Biden is trying to break the fever….jury still out on that one. Natural Gas has gone into the fade mode as well a Russia says they will deliver but the dictator in Belarus is talking sabotage….we’re testing longer term MA’s. Contact us at [email protected] to get our ideas on participating in the energy markets.

Gold Silver Copper BitCoin Ethereum

As we told readers (EARLY OCTOBER); it appears Gold Silver Platinum & China stocks have turned to the UPSIDE an so far so good. We wanted closes ABOVE Gold 1800-1850 and Silver at 25 which we got THIS WEEK. We may pull back to the breakout points BUT if this is not suckers rally we should see acceleration into the EOY an Q1 2022. We spoke of a BOTTOM back in July in crypto and a potential move to 100K by year end BUT we are not interested on buying crypto on strength as corrections always come and if you buy them it’s a more comfortable way to gain entry. You can simply Contact us at [email protected] and we can share our ideas on how to participate in these markets

Soybeans Sugar Coffee

Folks we are going thru food shortages (Wheat Coffee ect.) as we speak. We told readers LAST YEAR that these markets were breaking out on the UPSIDE and they sure did. We have seen corrections in some but most have remained firm…weather-bottlenecks ect. are factors. Too much money chasing too few goods…sounds familiar?

Remember All investing involves risk an it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm/broker to determine your own suitability and risk tolerance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information and opinions are for informational purposes only It is NOT advice.

Option Professor-Stock Market-Is the Pandemic Over? Stocks Say Yes! Read This!

DOWNLOAD the full PDF of this week’s update HERE

November 5 2021 Option Professor Inc Opinions & Observations

This Week we got big numbers out of ISM Services (if everybody’s spending on experiences-they’re also tipping so of course workers returned after benefits ran out). We also got a wimpy Fed & ECB & BOE who continue to fight a War that’s already been essentially won-employment (jobs although we remain 4 mill under pre covid but with productivity & retirements they ain’t comin’ back). The Central Banks are betting the pot that inflation will back off when easing of bottlenecks (ships will ultimately unload) and prices will fall under their own weight (Zillow’s failure @ flipping houses & many sellers cutting asking prices). Maybe so but higher wages (employment participation rate still low) and higher rents aren’t dropping after being raised. The jobs report should have been a yawner as anyone who’s been to the stores, out to eat, at a casino knows it’s game on. We have officially switches to buying things and stay at home to doing things and going places. Our trip to Hawaii that we booked a little while ago (Thank God) would be substantially higher if we booked to day. So it is out with PTON & ZM & DoorDash and in with Eats (Shake Shack-Bloomin’ and the Cheesecake Factory) Travel (Expedia MAR HLT CCL ect) plus AAL DAL Entertainment (LYV AMC MSGE). Cutting to the chase….we have earnings and operating leverage and margin expansion (all good) and we have demand coming out of ears (good) and we have no alternatives to be found (yields are a joke on fixed income and prices/valuations sky high) and we have many investors under invested (positioning) and we have $2 trillion in excess household buying power going into a holiday season nad we have central banks spraying gasoline on the fire or at least standing idling by with dovish stances……THIS WEEK we get PPI & CPI (inflation numbers) out of USA & China PLUS industrial production in UK & Eurozone. Overbought so do we get choppy here as VIX moves up….maybe but by Turkey Day & JAN EOM.-OK We have our Fibonacci target at SPX 4724 area (61.8) & had 4660 (38.2) the latter blew out the former still held Friday

Go to optionprofessor.com and get our research by simply putting in your email. or email [email protected]

Stock Market

As we said before we have an everything rally going on but rotation toward energy-value dividends-may be at hand. Semis pot stocks travel and leisure had a big week last week….email us [email protected]–get our research

Bond Market

If you get our research; you know our position gas been that the 10yr Treasury topped in March at 1.75% and EDV and TLT bottomed in price at the same time…we stick with that call….email us at [email protected]–Get our ideas

US Dollar & International

The Central Banks worldwide (major ones) punted the ball and our yields dropped as in comparison they look like King Kong so our US Dollar (DXY 94+) has been rising a bit toward what we see is a wall of resistance (94-96) so we will see where it goes from here. International markets look interesting to us as we have a RECORD trade deficit which to us means that overseas firms should make a bundle. China is a nightmare (real estate-covid-blackouts) but even nightmares end so we look for a possible turn BEFORE the Feb 2022 Olympics email us at [email protected] and get our ideas on investing in the Pacific Rim-Europe and the Emerging Markets.

Crude Oil Natural Gas

So far a mild fall/winter is saving the demand crunch as OPEC+ won’t go beyond prior supply hikes and our reserve are on the table but not yet on the market. TIME…it takes time for rig counts to get up and investment to occur (free cash flows going to debt repay-dividends and buybacks)…supplies still way under pre covid an so the ratio remains tight. Natural Gas prices have come off but a lot will depend on demand this winter email us @ [email protected] tp get our picks on where and how to gain exposure to what could be a very exciting energy market dead ahead

Gold Silver Copper Crypto

Well is it real or not…we have seen many head fake in Gold & Silver in the last few months and Friday we saw another as Gold got above & closed above $1800 and Silver approached $25 but did not exceed it. We hve told you we suspect the lows are in from the recent pullbacks but want $1850+ & $25 + to feel that we got a green light. Copper is still in short supply and if we get an infrastructure bill…could be supportive..back above 4.50 needed. We told readers in July that BitCoin & Ethereum (gong green in 2022) bottomed (GBTC ETHE) and we only are interested on dips (100K EOY?) Simply email us @ [email protected] and learn the best ways we see getting exposure to these markets

Soybeans Sugar Coffee

Soybeans trying to hold around 12 and if successful and closes above 12.50 could be a legitimate turn. Sugar and Coffee were big for us last year but now are consolidating…more data needed to discern accumulation or distribution

Remember All investing involves risk and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm/broker to determine your own suitability and risk tolerance. Past performance is nor indicative of future results. Information and opinions are for informational purposes only. It is NOT advice.

Option Professor-Stocks Hit All-Time Highs Make Hay While the Sun Shines-Must Read

DOWNLOAD: Full PDF Protfolio Roadmap update HERE

October 30 2021 Option Professor Inc. Opinions & Observations

Greetings Everyone!

Our insights into the market swings have been pretty sharp with a sell call at SPX 4500+ and the subsequent decline to SPX 4280 followed by a buy signal at SPX 4355-4400 which has now been followed by all time highs-not too shabby. So what do we think lies ahead?? Well we will go over things we see going on globally and see if you reach the same conclusions. Let’s get a couple of definitions out of the way- first is STAGNATION- means lack of activity, growth or development while the second is INFLATION- means a general increase in prices in an economy and consequential fall in the purchasing value of money. Got it. We just got GDP numbers for Q3 and they came in at 2% about 30% UNDER estimates and about 75% UNDER the prior Q2. We just got the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure Index) up 4.3% the HIGHEST reading since 1991 fueling concerns that price increases will last longer than expected. Whether you look at gas prices UP 100%, housing UP 20+% rents UP 11%+ and more, food stamps UP 25%, Social Security UP 5.9%, and there doesn’t seem to be a light at the end of the tunnel. China, Europe, and the Emerging Markets are getting hit too with China GDP at 4.9% (if you believe them) DOWN about 40% from the prior quarter and their PMI’s point to possible RECESSION. Germany cut its 2021 GDP to 2.6% DOWN 25% from prior forecasts. Supply shortages and rising inflation are the root cause. These guys plus Emerging Markets get whacked when food and energy rise or there are shortages and their consumer gets nailed. Supplies (bottlenecks) are improving with the ports around L.A. going to 24/7 shifts but on time shipments are at ONLY 34% which is almost 60% LOWER than pre Covid levels. According to trade associations; we are SHORT 75,000+ truck drivers as the pandemic reevaluation phenomenon has made less attractive and lower paying jobs difficult to fill. Cyclical theorists believe the 20 & 40 year Cycles will BOTTOM in 2022!

OK…that was very enlightening….now what can we do about it? Well…we are in a seasonally strong period (October SPX UP 6.9%) with Holiday Sales expected UP as much as 10.5% this year (last year was up 8.5% and pre Covid ranged between 1.8% and 3.5%). Could supply shortages revert us back toward the Mean? We also have the January Effect when money flows into the stock market historically. The RISK here is that you can’t sell products that are not on shelves and personal income and savings are slipping with higher cost of living causing a pinch. Even Apple’s Tim Cook said he expects things to get better “depending on the economy” in 2022…..their final product comes out of China but components come from all over the world. So-“Make Hay While the Sun Shines” BUT keep a close eye on your P&L!!!

RIGHT NOW we see a NARROWING of stock opportunities (check market breadth).are focused on stocks that can benefit from this scenario which in our view include Transports-Growth-Dividend Growth-Resources-Tech and others. We will share our VIEWS on where we see OPPORTUNITIES and HEDGED STOCK STRATEGIES as it will soon be 2022!!

Simply EMAIL US at [email protected] with your contact information to LEARN what we see coming!

Stock Market

This week we get a lot of data that will cause VOLATILITY. Watch how the relationship of consumer staples do versus consumer discretionary….could be a key to the winds of change. THIS WEEK we get ISM manufacturing and service numbers PLUS Labor Costs & Productivity AND Friday-the JOBS Report..WATCH–EMPLOYMENT PARTICIPATION RATE!

Email Us at [email protected] with questions

Bond Market

Globally Interest rates are rising and in some places a lot (Australia Brazil) and even Germany almost got out of negative territory! Central Banks have started issuing a lot of RHETORIC and sound a lot to us like that old song Prince’s big hit “This is What it Sounds Like When Doves Cry”. If inflation persist that song will get louder as they are all betting on “transitory inflation” and with the amount of printing and debt out there.. so they better be right!

Get our views on our views in TLT & FIXED INCOME…EMAIL US at [email protected] and ask your questions!

US Dollar International Markets

The US Dollar (DXY) is up against our resistance zone at 94-96 and now we see DECISION time dead ahead as our Long Term RSI is at about 50 and was ABOVE 50 during the run UP in the Dollar between 1996 and 2002 and more recently between 2014 and 2020. So if we get ABOVE & SUSTAIN this 94-96 level the surprise could be Dollar STRENGTH. Should we break UNDER the yearly lows SAYONARA! The USA is the best market on the planet as supply shortages and higher food and energy prices are hurting China Europe & Emerging Markets much worse than here.

EMAIL US at [email protected] and we will share our views in the Dollar-China-Pacific Rim-Europe & EM!

Crude Oil Natural Gas

These markets could get wild SOON depending how the winter unfolds and if OPEC will release more oil and Russia will deliver the gas they promised. Big oil companies are woefully inadequate delivering supplies and energy problems are definitely hurting global economies. We saw oil prices back off temporarily this week…they recovered…this week?

EMAIL US and we will share our views on oil and gas and ways we see opportunity [email protected]

Gold Silver Copper BitCoin

We have been patient in our views on Gold & Silver as while we feel there is potential that the lows are BUT the failure to maintain Gold ABOVE 1800-1850 and Silver ABOVE 25 has us feeling traders should sit on their wallets a bit longer as if those levels are exceeded and maintained…it should be game on. Copper mines are talking supply shortages again and that may spell good times UNLESS we take out 4 bucks and we enter a slowdown or heaven forbid RECESSION. Bitcoin & Ethereum (GBTC ETHE) jumped up and are now meandering (actually Ethereum is performing better as they have committed to clean energy in 2022). Will we see a end of the year STAMPEDE as many expect…we will soon see.

EMAIL US and we will share our views on these markets [email protected]

Soybeans Sugar Coffee

We told readers last year that Soybeans were a bargain at 8-10 and they ran about 15….former resistance was at 12 so when we pulled back toward 12 we thought it could bounce and it has….if w take out recent lows just UNDER 12 then all bets are off and there seems to be supply issues in Corn & Wheat & fertilizer issues in Europe-ammonia -13yr highs. Sugar and Coffee (softs) had huge run ups after we told reader about them last and recently have gone into ranges as they digest parabolic moves. If supply chains & weather are problematic for as far as the eye can see…more if not less.

Remember All investing involves risk and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm/broker to determine your own suitability an risk tolerance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information and Opinions are for informational [purposes only. It is NOT advice.

Option Professor-Stocks-30% of the S&P Report This Week- Be Ready! Must Read

Download the full PDF here: OPupdate102321

October 22 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations

Hello Everybody!

Since we got back from the Caribbean a few weeks back our insight have been spot on. First we told you of the important support on SPX at 4300 area and then the resistance at 4360 & 4450 both crucial to the rally. We sent out an alert on the Gold & Silver stocks that have had a significant rally (Gold had best week in many months). We sent out an alert suggesting short term traders evaluate switching out of big gains in stocks and replacing them with limited risk option strategies BEFORE tech rolled over. Now what is ahead?? Here’s our view….tapering and interest rate hikes are on the horizon. In the weeks ahead central banks (ECB-Canada-the Fed) will announce plans on tapering while developing nations (Russia & Brazil) are announcing substantial interest rate increases. We will be looking for sideline oil out of OPEC to cool off the prices (they meet Nov 4) but who knows what will be decided as oil companies like the high prices, OPEC sees we are trying to switch to electric and fracking and investment are not quick fixes. How will the winter paly out? If we are colder than normal and Russia fails to deliver more energy as promised.. another leg up is in the cards. If we break 1.75% on the 10yr Treasuries; you could see 2%+ before EOY. Inflation may close out the year with a 5% handle and next year could be 4% for all we know. Some say demand will rollover and supply chains will resume and kill the inflation beast.. we’ll see. Should rates rise; valuations (which we have told you based on inflation rates and now higher yields should be 18 PE) are at risk of compressing not unlike China has seen. Some say the US Dollar will roll over due to fiscal and trade deficits exploding (although corporate & personal taxes paid are at records). We hear European stock are the place to be on that scenario as well as emerging markets. In this type environment; banks, materials, energy, consumer discretionary, industrials and reopening stocks may be the place to be. The Transports (CSX UNP ect.) have been running great as when bottlenecks subside …who’s going to deliver all these goods.. Santa?? We may be able to survive next week as earnings may put the glow back on traders faces but once all these central backs start taking away accommodation we will see what happens with the 10 Yr Treasury…..if it behaves (1.50% to 1.70%)…..then the 5%-10% year end rally may still be on but if there is an exodus out of bonds….upside capped. Stocks Bonds Commodities Real Estate……nothing looks particularly cheap here so some cash for a rainy day OK Instead of fearing the Ides of March…we may need help from the Gnomes of November if interest rates pop.

Do you have specific questions?…email us at [email protected] with questions & Contact Information

Stock Market

We got about a double top at SPX 4550 and now we will see if the VIX hitting 15+ and a market high point coincides with a correction of 100 to 150 point like it did last time in August. If not; the 4500-54550 area may actually be the base level for the rest of the year. Find out what we like here….go [email protected]

Bond Market

Should you look at your bond portfolio in the last few weeks you probably are seeing valuations dropping. Some areas like high yield still attract interest despite negative real yields as well as preferred shares and the frontrunner floating rate issues…..want more information…email us at [email protected]

Us Dollar/ International Markets

Our view is the DXY will not be able to get thru 94-96 and has a decent chance of rolling over due to deficits both fiscal and trade. This should benefit Europe-Pacific Rim-Emerging markets. With Chinese stocks trading at reduced prices and valuations and with 40% of the market in tech..we have ideas for prior to Bejing Feb 2022 Email us at [email protected] and we are happy to share with you.

Crude Oil Natural Gas

We have told readers about this sector since oil was trading in single digits in 2020 and Nat Gas (LNG) was at half the prices they are today. NOW??…you tell me what winter weather will be and if Russia & OPEC will release reserves…we will tell you where prices go….early November they meet…email us at [email protected]

Gold Silver Copper Crypto

Gold & Silver are teasing with rallies but then fade down…we believe there is a good chance of a face ripper rally by the end of the year but not without closes over 1800-1850 Gold and 25 Silver. Copper has been touted as the new oil as supplies are tight (most mines already done and new ones are in dodgy countries with dodgy infrastructure). Having said that in the last year this market in all forms have been very good to us. We told everyone Bitcoin & Ethereum bottomed in July months ago so we are not adding on strength…we get another tank job we have our levels of interest as the new ETF may mark a short term double top but anything is possible with crypto either way….next week let’s see CPI data….Email us at [email protected] with questions

Soybeans Coffee Sugar

We told readers about Soybeans going up last year between 8 & 10 and it ran to about 17. We said former resistance at 12 would be an area to trade against an we just got a great rally off that area that faded. If we hold the recent lows and take out this weeks high…we would be very encouraged. Coffee and Sugar were brought to readers attention at 12.50 Sugar and 100 Coffee….little steep now for us email us [email protected]

Remember All investing involves risk and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm/broker to determine your own suitability and risk tolerance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information and opinions are for informational purposes only It is NOT advice.

Option Professor-Stock Market-Is the Easy Part of Earnings Over Now? A Must Read!

PDF: DOWNLOAD THE FULL UPDATE HERE

October 15 2021
Option Professor Inc
Opinions & Observations

Welcome Back Everybody!….Well maybe a trip to the Caribbean was the key to help with our clarity as in the last 10 days since we came back our insights have been spot on. Based on our 5yr chart and 24 SMA; we surmised the 4300 area must hold and a close above SPX 4355 and 4450 would cement the turn up fueled by a slew of reports that came out this week. First bank earning were dynamite especially BAC & GS but the rest were not too shabby. Loan growth and credit card usage for some left something to be desired. Inflation came out lower than expected and showed a accelerated decline from June albeit still at elevated levels. Jobless claims dropped and the Fed’s mandate to stabilize employment is done. Now it will turn the 2nd mandate which is stable prices and if they can stabilize food & energy that will be done as well. Biden is on top of the bottlenecks and when was the last time someone got the call from the government and that was about it on those shenanigans. We were in San Pedro last month and saw all the containers there so get someone to unload them and let’s go! Operating earnings are growing faster than other metrics due to something we told you about over 1 year ago —Corporate Operating Leverage! The Consumer is spending up a storm.. how do we know this?? Retail sales came out and were expected -.2% and came in at +.7% and the August numbers were revised Upward! Year over year was up 13.9% and consumer spending is the majority of our economic growth. With in 10 weeks we will have Thanksgiving-Christmas -New Years spending and it looks like money is burning a hole in the pockets of consumers. Oil prices have gone up +30% in 7 weeks and Natural Gas prices were up about 70% at one point in the same period. If this persists it would be a concern as well as the increase in short term rates as if they ever invert then a recession would loom. These are a couple of risk and the companies that must deliver items may disappoint on earning (FDX) if their costs have cause damage to the bottom line. Due to demand (orders) having outpaced the ability to deliver (bottlenecks); we may see a backlog of activity that may bode well for quarters ahead. Our call now is that we have a breakaway gap on SPX at 4360 and a runaway gap on SPX under 4450 so if we don’t get an exhaustion gap we could pull back to fill some gaps. Important levels to us are now SPX 4480 and 4510 which were support off the highs thus now resistance. We expect earnings in the next 3 weeks to be inspiring with a potential pause afterwards then a thrust into the holidays as the consumer ha funds and will spend them. We should be done with SPX 4200 handles unless energy and higher costs for corporations hurting margins emerge as the culprit in earnings reports. With all the buying this week.. we always ask who’s selling?? Smart money sells UNDER SPX 4550???

Get our detailed reports on our ideas? Questions for Option Professor?? simply email us [email protected]!

Stock Market

Most stocks had a great week although GOOG AMZN MSFT AAPL still lagging the herd. Value & Dividend stocks are breaking out as is consumer discretionary, transports, Russell 2k, materials, and a number of other sectors. Get our detailed report on where and when we see the big opportunities. Go to optionprofessor.com today!

Bond Market

We told readers that we will stick to our guns on 1.75% on the 10 yr Treasury being the high until taken out so we viewed the move to 1.60%+ as a gift. Inflation numbers and economic comparisons are slowing which helps. Go to optionprofessor.com and LEARN how we attempt to slay the INCOME dragon with a variety of fixed income ideas.

US Dollar/International Markets

We feel the US Dollar (DXY) may be rolling over as we said that 95-96 is big time resistance and at this point we feel it will fail to exceed those levels. Support levels at 93 and then 92 and then 90 will see some buying but the reality of our deficits and money supply growth will come home to roost. Questions for us? Email us at [email protected] International markets have started a turn up including Europe. Emerging Markets & China and the Pacific Rim (South Korea Japan Australia)…..Do you want to know how we participate? Email questions to [email protected]!

Crude Oil Natural Gas

We told readers these markets would roar many months ago as lack of investment into new supplies and a demand surge leads to higher prices. Do you want to know where we see opportunity? Email us at [email protected]

Gold Silver Copper Crypto

We sent out a alert about the turn in Gold & Silver earlier this week but there is still more wood to chop before the all clear. Copper is the new Gold and is being bid up on tight supplies and huge demand. We told everyone that Bitcoin (GBTC-ETHE) bottomed in July months ago so new high no surprise to us. Email us at optionprofessor@gmail com

Soybeans Sugar Coffee—-We went bullish on Soybeans last year at 8-10 and saw it run tp almost 17! Having no interest up there we said a pullback toward former resistance (now support at 12 would RENEW our interest. This month we went to the 12 area so we will keep you updated as this is the neighborhood it should find support and so far that has happened. We got bullish last year in Sugar on the breakout above 12.50 area…now it’s in a range between 19-21 for 90 days…we await a breakout. Coffee was a market we like on the breakout of 100 last year and now it is above 200 and about 25% above its 200 day moving average….weather market-South American market-caveat emptor!

Remember All investing involves risk and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm/broker to determine your own suitability and risk tolerance. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results. Information and opinions provide are for informational purposes only. It is NOT advice.

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