Option Professor Webinar-Stock Stampede or Short Term Market Peak? Must Read
March 27 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations
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OK…On Friday we saw a stampede into stocks in late afternoon trading taking the Dow Jones Transports to NEW HIGHS while the S&P & Dow tested their highs and the Nasdaq still off the pace. End of quarter rebalancing we told you about weeks ago is happening and VALUE-CYCLICALS- BANKS & ENERGY continue to be the new momentum trade…as we told you for many months–beneficiaries of better valuations-steepening yield curve-reopening-earnings. GOOD NEWS- GDP in Q4 was 4.3%+ and Jobless Claims tanked (we told you for months Jobs Reports will normalize). The VIX broke and sustained a sub 20 number!…..Banks can buyback stock & pay dividends June 30…M&A activity expected to jump…money supply up OVER 4X in last 20 yrs (accelerated last year) means lots of $$$ around….Personal Income/Household Savings rose at a Record pace last year…$3 Trillion Stimulus/$2 Trillion Households/Fiscal Stimulus NOT SO GREAT NEWS…Some Cycle guys still calling for a PEAK in March-Mid April leading to buy point in EOM May or June (we have seen tradeable sell offs from this neighborhood)….the A/D line is lagging…Household spending was down in Feb (bad weather?)….Prices Paid Index Jumped…this much LIQUIDITY…this much pent up DEMAND and the Fed still saying no hikes for 3 YEARS may lead to INFLATION & HIGHER RATES and some say Higher Rates is like GRAVITY to stocks (zero rates=no gravity)….we have BORROWED from the FUTURE-payback-higher rates-lower dollar. So who’s making out from all this….we have told you about the ROTATION for MONTHS and the chart of Value vs Growth suggests the turn is in full force and has a long way to go….foreign countries are exporting to us at record levels which means they are making $$$$….and supply chain shortages and demand pressures look good for resources SUBSCRIBE to our Newsletter and LEARN what is on Our FOCUS LIST NOW for $49 Monthly or $297 Yearly….peanuts.
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Stock Market
Well we have demographics (millennials)–a steepening Yield Curve–positioning 9sideline money)–and risk reward (VIX under 20) all pointing to a favorable market so stay the course for now BUT be sure you know how your hedging strategiescollars-married puts-trimming-replacement trades using calls & spreads ect.) so that if we see a stall or correction you at least you have an opportunity to protect gains should decide gritting your teeth causes dental damage:):). We saw housing get a bid this week with stocks like LEN MHK SHW PHM and Williams Sonoma rising. Some are looking to dividend payers (we told readers about this MONTHS ago VYM) an now T-6.9%, KO 3%, IBM 4.8% USB 3% and VZ 4.3% are same than have garnered attention. Materials Energy Industrials and Consumer Discretionary (Staples now too) still attract bids…..while high valuations have hit the skids buy may be worth a peek off their highs Snowflake -50%., TDOC -29%, ZM -46%, ROKU -35%, SHOP & SPOT -20-34%, AAPL -17% AMZN -14% to name a few. My son got an I-12 which definitely has a bigger screen and 3 cameras so maybe a huge rush later this year?? The NFT craze is brewing and some say Ethereum (ETCG) may be a way to play it. Two vice sectors may continue as the states are looking for revenue….online gambling has been a monster (DKNG PENN Flutter ect) and the pot stocks (MJ)..one is pulling back the has done so…but now the states get apiece of the action…strange bedfellows but not surprising $$$$. Other stocks of note.. Unusual option activity V BA & AMAT plus price action in BX WBA FSLR BP STZ JPM XLE RRR WSC ORCL and many more as we keep subscribers abreast of not only ETF’s in sectors on our focus list but a lot more! SUBSCRIBE TODAY!..Only $49 per Month/$297 per Year…
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Bond Market
The yields backed off the 1.75 area on the 10yr and 2.52 for the 30 yr after a drop in Bond prices that was the worst start to a year in this Century! We are NORMALIZING interest rates to reflect GROWTH & INFLATION expectations and since we still have negative real yields that process has a lot more to go over time. If you are an investor in LONG DURATION you are getting whacked (your coupon is dwarfed by the price decline of the bond) BUT it also must mean you have not listened to our WARNING since last March 2020 was a blow off top and the end of the declining rates cycle that started back with VOLKER….we have said stay in short duration and sprinkle some high yield and preferred stocks to sweeten the pot….this has been a good place to be…..Junk debt issuance at a record..overseas market are rushing to the issue window….Treasury issuance will explode as transfer payments and deficits must be paid for…this rally we see in debt may last awhile (positioning was VERY short like the positioning on the US Dollar and both have seen a corrective rally…but the fundamentals do like bode well for either market unless GROWTH outpaces INFLATION
US Dollar & International Markets
As we have told you the US Dollar (DXY) got oversold at the 88-90 areas (14% drop from 104) and positioning was ultra short so we believed the higher yields would return our yield advantage and cause a corrective rally which it has done closing Friday at 92.72. Now we trade ABOVE the 50 day MA and the 200 day MA (91.06-92.11) so that’s positive but the averages are still INVERTED to the downside so the sustainability of the rally will tell the tale. The Fed printing (money supply from 5 Trill to 20+Tril in 20 yrs) dwarfs foreign countries and some have positive real yields which means that at some point the house of cards playing with fire could burn…..unless growth is so strong that revenue spikes….we’ll be watching…..foreign countries are flooding us with goods (if they can get thru the Suez Canal:):)….which bodes well for their earnings (they have lower valuations)….some say we reopen July 4th…Europe Labor Day..Emerging Markets EOY….all bodes well for Asia Europe & Emerging Markets….we share our FOCUS LIST with subscribers so…….
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Crude Oil Natural Gas
OK…..the Suez Canal Drama has helped return the bid to Crude Oil prices (57 to 61) after a correction we told you was coming from 68 to 57 (50 day MA). We are still well above the 200 day MA so back and forth action may continue but we are very interested in OIH as a longer term vehicle and used the sell off to 180 area as an opportunity…if we’re going to 80 the future of that is bright….also the leverage players and refiners are on our radar always as lots of gas guzzlers still making us money. Natural Gas may be hitting support at 2.50 and our favorite LNG hit support at 70 like we said so let’s see if the correction is over in the days & weeks ahead…
Gold Silver Platinum Copper BitCoin Rare Metals
We have said for may months that the parabolic moves in Gold & Silver last year was going to need TIME & PRICE corrections to normalize and we continue with that process. Technically oversold at $1675 & $24.50 we felt we could rally and we did but as we said last week…the easy lifting is done …..on Gold we need to clear $1750-$1850-$1950 to make big money on the Upside with Silver needing ABOVE $28-$30 to get it’s mojo back on…this may take time so now a late summer or early fall cyclical low may be in the cards HOWEVER with an exploding money supply and GDP spike with Price Paid spike & the Fed on hold for 3 years….I wouldn’t stray too far. Platinum is our dark horse as it is way more rare than Gold…is trading at a huge discount to Gold (was larger) and has industrial application (catalytic converters) & possible shortages like many markets so $800 to $1000 is the base and ABOVE $1300 is rarified air. Copper has demand coming out its ears (10 million tonnes) and supply chain issues but lately we saw a 1-15% correction dues to overbought technical condition (35% above 200 day MA) at one point. Same thing with a couple of copper stocks that have been stellar for a year… now the correction maybe over…we share these ideas with subscribers on our FOCUS LIST….BitCoin (GBTC & ETCG) is the same story we’ve told for OVER a year…the year after halving is good (2021)….it is illiquid due to concentrated ownership…institutions are warming up (Fidelity Van Eck ect)…..Central Banks (China-Sweden) are moving forward & the Fed is using MIT for data….block chain has not been breached…so every time you see a 30% to 50% drop (we seen a few)…take your risk capital and take your shot….is there a risk that it could be outlawed like Gold was back in the day….will CB coins unseat its supremacy.. who knows?….it’s risky..so far profitable. Turning to Rare Earth mining and a stock symbol MP which just dropped 35%–for the faithful-it’s on sale
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Soybeans Sugar Coffee
US Growers plan to seed the most acreage of Soybeans since 2014 as the higher prices brings out the John Deere’s. What we don’t know is how the weather will be during this planting and growing process PLUS how much hedging (sell short to deliver crops not yet harvested) is going on that could cause a perfect storm (no pun intended:) Prices have been hanging in the 13.50 to 14.50 area all year long (we told readers be bullish at 8-10 last year). We are way above LT MA”s so the RISK of a DROP exists but IF we hold this range and a weather market breaks out with China demand it could be a wild 2021…..Sugar and Coffee have seen corrections (maybe having to do with Trouble in Brazil) but corrections are all they are (in fact Coffee bounced nice off 125…they still are holding LT support (13 & 110) SUBSCRIBE TODAY! Get our insights into these markets and our FOCUS LIST of ETF’s for Only $49 per month or 297 yr…
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Option Professor Report- Stocks in A Tug of War Now Who Wins? Must Read
March 19 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations
Welcome Back!…..We have told you in the last year that the S&P 2200 was turning up & start with Tech & Growth,,,,we then told you the S&P 2800 was a key long term moving average and once ABOVE it (with the Fed’s help) we were out of the woods…..we then told you Gold & Silver’s higher prices were parabolic and would not last…we then told you that VALUE & CYCLICALS & DIVIDEND PAYING stocks would gain favor as the yield curve would surely steepen and big money would be more comfortable buying into those stocks rather than the high valuation……recently we said that the highs around S&P 3960 could find resistance and a correction could occur. In the last 2 months we saw the S&P have declines from 3870 to 3690 and 3955 to 3720 and now 3983 to 3885…all very playable….BUT the prior 2 declines were followed by rallies of S&P 3690 to 3955 and 3720 to 3983 also very playable. NOW WHO WINS THIS TUG of WAR? We understand some cycle guys believe the market TOPPED out this last week and will DECLINE in a zig zag pattern until later this year….that is clearly a CONTRARIAN VIEW. The China numbers have been spectacular (retail sales +33%/manufacturing +35%/exports thru the roof) yet FXI & KWEB have DECLINED in the month of March so stranger things have happened. This may also be saying that they are screaming buys but China does seem to want no bubbles and have taken steps in that direction (BABA’s ANT deal squashed and reduce media holdings). The BULL CASE for stocks really comes down to 70% of our economic growth which is CONSUMER SPENDING. Households are on fire with cash (refinancing 2020 $2.6 Trillion inflation adjusted)), wealth effect, back to work, low interest debt service, millennials in the game, patient Fed (easy), vaccines, improved weather, pent up demand no interest in Bonds, VIX trying to sustain UNDER 20, and of course an obscene amount of stimulus now and coming.
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We are seeing EVIDENCE of their willingness to SPENS with air travel already spiking and CREDIT CARD ACTIVITY HIGHER on a year over year basis and less at grocery stores and more at restaurants (my buddy in Phoenix says restaurants packed). We also see baby boomer credit card activity is up huge in March. We must respect the old phrase “just when you think you know the keys to the markets they change the locks”…..but it seems reasonable to expect the GDP and EARNINGS to spike and it starts in a couple of weeks with the BANKS who should deliver great numbers. Some say the economy is back to the strength of 2018 and now has 2X or 3X the GROWTH RATE and INTEREST RATES are HALF the level back then so it is SCARY how much of a DEMAND shock we could see. We did see drops in energy stocks as inventories rose and IF we get a END OF MONTH BID in the Bond market coming from mutual fund REBALANCING ….we could see the banks start to give back some like we saw this week. Ray Dalio who is a renowned hedge fund manager believes the monetization of the debt by the Fed is indicative of END OF DEBT CYCLE behavior that may show its ugly head by the end of the year. Here’s the deal…the whole world owns Bonds and they are LOSING money as GDP spike -Inflation-Potential Weaker Dollar may GROW in months ahead…..should they want to SELL and the Fed/Treasury must SELL…who is the incremental BUYER…..the FED. The Dow Transports (FDX UPS UNP) and the Russell 2K so far have been & remained strong which is good so if S&P & QQQ SMH ARKK hold their monthly lows AND we get a bid EOM on Bonds…if we see strength-go with it Remember…China saw some buy the RUMOR sell the FACT so be HUMBLE! SUBSCRIBERS will get our FOCUS LIST on a DIVERSIFIED approach that we feel is essential in this market . We will SHARE our ideas for VALUE-CYCLICALS-DIVIDENDS-TECH/SEMIS INTERNATIONAL-DOLLAR HEDGE. SUBSCRIBE TODAY!
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Stock Market
Prior to last week we explained that Fed EX FDX was going to announce EARNINGS and they would be monster so anything between 255 and 265 was a steal…well last week we were rewarded with a great report and a $20 pop in the stock. We are following 2 new issues RBLX & CPNG for possible turns…speaking of turns..we are expecting the lows for March in SMH & QQQ & ARK funds to hold and proceed to rally if we see bid show up in Bonds with EOM rebalancing…if not..Sayonara….where is the puck going?…we think after any dips energy & banks plus value & dividend payers still the place to be….by May they talk of infrastructure deal maybe (URI-Materials-Vale-NUE-FCX ect)….SUBSCRIBERS receive our specific ideas. After that the sports related (DKNG MSGS ect) and autos related (DAN-F-GPC) are on the radar plus more. The ETF MOON is on the radar now vs ARK and really the big story in the next 2 weeks is whether there will be a selloff in tech & semis & innovation as rebalancing occurs or if we hold March’s lows and get a recovery run as the 10 yr pauses at 1.70-1.80? SUBSCRIBE TODAY!…..and get our FOCUS LIST & More!
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Bond Market
Long term rates hit about 2.54% and much more and TINA’s got a fight. After the run up we’ve seen and may see stocks may have discounted much of the good news and the consumer spending pop could ease…if that happens people like the Black Rock boys who indicated duration may be a less dirty word soon will arise. There’s so much debt and ongoing issuance only a fool would not think we’re near the breaking point unless growth is so sustainable that we can handle the LEVERAGE…but let us SHARE with you a LEVERAGE HISTORY LESSON…..1980’s LEVERAGED BUY OUTS (LBO) preceded the 1987 crash…LONG TERM CAPITAL & VALUATIONS preceded the DotCom crash…..no money down no doc REAL ESTATE LEVERAGE preceded the crash of 2008….and now we see LEVERAGE in the Fed Balance sheet & Corporate balance sheets & Consumer (credit card issuance & use) is HISTORIC….hard to time but look out for Cops…in fact we believe the Fed is like Cops…great people..we love them…but they come AFTER the trouble. SUBSCRIBE TODAY!..we show you where to get INCOME & explain details
US Dollar & International Markets
As we gave details to readers before the DXY has held 88-90 as our economy rebounds dramatically & vaccinations far outpace the world and our interest rates are back up to a real advantage so we push 92…..if we push 92-95 that changes the landscape Longer term the Fed is monetizing the debt down the road substantially potentially and could be the straw that breaks the Dollar’s back..we are on the look out and will adjust accordingly. International markets like Europe. EM and Asia Mexico/Brazil look very interesting but some still lack growth BUT we will use them for CUURENCY and VALUATION diversification which we believe will be needed by Q4. SUBSCRIBE TODAY!…Get our FOCUS LIST and details on where & is liked
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Crude Oil Natural Gas
As we told you the energy sector was a bit frothy as were oil prices and refiners were racing to deliver so this week we saw inventories rise which has trimmed prices (XOP XLE ect) but a rebound late in the week occurred after the 10 buck sell off from the highs….LT we still believe in the supply demand dynamic to be positive but as in any bull market..buy the dips. Go size selloff in Natural Gas from 3.25 to 2.50 may be over and with it the dip we warned about in LNG…should hold the 70 neighborhood if any good SUBSCRIBE TODAY!…Get our Energy FOCUS LIST before the next move!
Gold Silver Copper Platinum BitCoin
We told you GOLD SILVER PLATINUM hit short term lows at $1675, $25 and $1100 and so far they have bounced very nicely BUT the easy work may be done as we need prices OVER $1850, $28-30 and $1300 to open the door to the real upsideor risk going back in the soup. Copper has DEMAND of 10 Mil Tonnes and supplies that may not be adequate as INFRASTRUCTRE is a sweet word for the copper bulls…we have 2 copper stocks we rode like Secretariat this last year…..BitCoin has money flow coming in and terrible LIQUIDITY to meet the demand…our mantra since last year is that 2021 is great and could hit 100K BUT use 30% to 50% dips to average in with risk capital…remember like TSLA they were first to the game..competition next SUBSCRIBE TODAY!..Learn what metals stocks are on our FOCUS LIST
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Soybeans Sugar Coffee
The grains have benefitted from CHINA demand and this week was no different….prices seem elevated and a correction would seem natural but BEWARE…farmers and others may be sellers/hedgers up here against CROPS THEY DO NOT HAVE YET which means if we have WEATHER MARKET this year there could be a scramble for example if the shorts have more exposure than they can deliver..a spike can happen…Gamestop to an extreme example was fueled in part by 140% short interest. Sugar & Coffee are losing altitude but if you are a believer in a COMMODITY BULLISH SUPERCYCLE ….be happy to get the dip SUPPORT Sugar 12-13 Coffee 110-100 SUBSCRIBE TODAY!…Get our Focus List on ETF’s in these markets & MORE!
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REMEMBER There is a substantial risk of loss in short term trading and option trading and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm/broker/advisor to determine your own suitability. Past performance is not necessarily indictive of future results Use Risk Capital Only
Option Professor Reports-Will Higher Rates Kill This Rally or Stampede Ahead? Read More.
March 12 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations
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Welcome Back Everybody!…Never a dull moment in these markets huh? This week was no different as the Transports & the Russell were not to be denied and after a rough correction tech & growth got back on their feet. The S&P took out the 3840/3860 range igniting a rally to new highs but the VALUE-BANKS-ENERGY-DIVIDEND Trade that we talked about for MONTHS continued to be a great winner for us and our readers. The Jobless Claims came in good (we expect the unemployment rate to collapse by year end) & Household net worth rose 6.9 Trillion in Q4 so you know the Wealth Effect Plus Stimulus Plus Patient Fed Plus Economy Reopening spells GDP spike. The Millennials have been opening up trading accounts in record numbers and have use option trading to leverage their opinions. Bonds area loser and if we accelerate through TLT 135…an exodus into our groups should continue. POTENTIAL big story at the end of the month (Q1) is the huge MOMENTUM FUNDS may allocate less into tech & growth and more into Energy & Banks (we’re already there)..that’s where the momentum lives. There could be years of runway ahead as the roaring 20’s actually got its legs years after the pandemic. BIG STORY…we have additions to the S&P 500 coming IN about a week or so NXP Semis, PENN, CZR, and Generac are now members OUT are Xerox, Flow Serve, SL Green & Vontier…arrivaderci guys! Earnings are expected by us to be stellar as we see the comparisons to be easy as companies have cut costs and OPERATING LEVERAGE will catch some by surprise. Real interest rates are still negative which is good for Stocks but may tell us Bonds may be in trouble (60-40 portfolios beware). The Fed’s 2 mandates are employment and stable pricing. They threw the kitchen sink at this thing to get the employment rate down (25% JUMP in money supply-OVER 20% of all dollars in circulation came in last year PLUS 12% JUMP in money supply this year PLUS a Balance Sheet that exploded as they Leverage America). When you add that to the fantastic & huge fiscal & monetary DEFICITS; one must assume that a 60′ 70’s inflation pop is in the cards. Three (3) Outcomes could be that the Fed stays behind the curve and let’s it happen OR the Fed responds to inflation and Chaos ensues OR it all plays out very orderly and without drama & volatility….a very rosy outcome Could we get a skirmish between China & the USA over Taiwan or the South China Sea? Could the EXPERIMENT of this much stimulus to a reopening economy already booming be problematic?….they are playing with fire. We have given SUBSCRIBERS a PORTFOLIO ROADMAP for the last year that included TECH & COVID Beneficiaries back in MARCH-MAY followed by a move to the bombed out EPICENTER Stocks as we got into summer and followed it up with VALUE BANKS ENERGY as we approached fall as we called for a steepening of the yield curve and that call was right on. We believe the USA will have a V Shaped reopening that outdoes China BUT we feel ultimately this is a WORLDWIDE coming out party that will lift all boats and VALUATION Overseas is compelling long term and some say the huge CORRECTION in QQQ & SMH & ARK funds has bottomed during that last sell off. Do you want to LEARN How to SUBSCRIBE to our NEWSLETTER & get the SPECIFICS on FOCUS LIST in GROWTH INCOME & SPECULATION? EMAIL [email protected] & let us know you want to get rates.
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Stock Market
WATCH if support zone on the S&P at 3900-3850 holds & REMEMBER LT MA’s remain about 500-700 SP points UNDER current levels. We follow a WIDE RANGE of markets in our NEWSLETTER so we will give you some examples that are always EVOLVING…E-commerce winners IYT FDX UPS ect…Homebuilders LEN DHI ..Payments IPAY V PYPL ect Theatres AMC CRK IMAX,…NEW issues RBLX CPNG ect….Insurance MET MMC TRV ect. Travel/Leisure PEJ BJK DKNG PENN TRIP EXPE BMBL ect …Industrials BA HON ect Banks KRE XLF EUFN ect. Energy XLE COP CVX MUR MRO SLB ect EV NIO TSLA ect Reddit NOK BB SNDL AMC Tech NVDA SMH QQQ ARK ect….Infrastructure PAVE CLF X URI ect…Growth Fallen Angels Shopify Spotify ZM DOCU TDOC TWLO Fastley Cloudfare MRNA PTON ROKU Pinterest Zscaler Splunk ect Cyber Security/Cloud/Metals & a lot more. SUBSCRIBE Today by Email Your Interest to [email protected]
Bond Market
The auctions went OK this week but prices finished the week with their tails between their legs. We said for so many months that this is one of the BIG BUBBLES in the world and a mistake here of excessive dollar decline, inflation spike or GDP growth spike could sound the sell out alarm bell with a liquidity issue that we don’t believe the Fed or Central Bakers have EVER seen. Having said that, we told SUBSCRIBERS & readers alike to AVOID duration and if you want to spice up your income through HY and Secured Loans and Preferred you could look that way as most are relatively short duration and the default risk currently is acceptable. Concerns that our spike in rates (fastest pace since Volker in early 80’s) and the Dollar strength will damage Overseas & EM debt abound. Treasury Dealers off loaded $64 Billion and are now down to $185 Billion–lowest since 2018. High Yield spreads at 325 are tight & some say will get tighter. Still we have negative real yields so monetary conditions are easy…TLT hangs by skin of its teeth. Fed meets next week…we look for doves with admission of growth upgrade. First they fix unemployment & after prices get out of hand they fix that too. JOIN US and email [email protected] FOCUS LIST for INCOME
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US Dollar/International Markets
At the risk of repeating ourselves…the Dollar has held the 88-90 support and with the yield advantage back we have a shot at a rally toward 95 if we can sustain 92+. We were dollar bears from 104-100 to the lows as our rates skid At some point the commodity currencies (Canada/Aussie) will have their day PLUS Japan & Euro/BP may shine when they reopen..for now USD firm. International Markets rebounded a bit…China had their convention with plans to grow & make HK a subsidiary with “patriotic” candidates only. China’s exports are screaming & Japan’s GDP thru the roof. NIKKEI still way up there but China stocks still BABA KWEB still recovering (ANT says no sub 18 yrs old can take out loans & spec on stocks..wow what reform:):)..Brazil’s having an inflation problem among others +5.2%!! EM & Europe popping off selloff…would use this months lows as a line in the sand. JMIA stock (the AMZN of Africa) got a lot of options action this week as did AMD. For our SUBSCRIBERS…we have a FOCUS LIST on these markets…email us-JOIN US!
Crude Oil/Natural Gas
For the LAST YEAR….We have been on this and SHARING with our readers that supplies would be tight (no cap ex/rigs/fracking OPEC) and that USA demand would rebound strongly sending ENERGY stocks back up very substantially which is EXACTLY what occurred. HOWEVER we see we are way above the 50-200 day MA’s and so if either demand of supply hiccups a correction is not off the table……Baker Hughes rig count is about 50% lower than a year ago & PE & Cap Ex seems to remain absent. Look to the COP-PSX SLB XOM & refineries (MRO VLO MUR) to benefit from the price gap as we go into summer driving season (daylight savings time this weekend!). Natural Gas still on the defensive as we said it would be as it tests the 50-200 day MA’s at 2.60/2.40…our favorite has remained firm LNG-$20 over 200 Day GET OUR FOCUS LIST on Energy & Financials-email us-check our rate deals!
Gold Silver Copper Platinum-BitCoin
We told you Gold & Silver were a no sale since $2100 Gold & $30 Silver as they went up too far too fast on a fear trade…parabolic the the LT MA’s. Last week we told you that Gold hit a Fibonacci retracement at about $1675 where we bounced $50 bucks….. while Silver and Platinum hit $25 & $1100. Mining shares like GDX GDXJ SIL SILJ AUY KGC & more are discounted and may be ready to show some legs…..so we will update you because the Fed printing press/consumer spending/Covid constraints on supplies could spell sunnier days for precious metals IF IF they can hold their LOWS. We got bullish Copper at 2.50 & FCX & SCCO a Long Time Ago!! Hard to come into markets when they are miles above their 200 day MA’s so while China is getting supplies & LEN DHI ect are cooking….recent lows as lines in the sand We have told readers about GBTC to play BitCoin since it was 10 bucks,,,we also said use 30% to 50% corrections to get in and use 100K as potential target as institutions warm up to the digital block chain craze. Risk Capital We have our FOCUS LIST on Metals & Mining too SUBSCRIBE TODAY!
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Soybeans Sugar Coffee
Soybeans appear to be topping out here a bit UNDER 15 per bushel but time will tell as South America had some weather issues hurting supplies. The MA’s LT are in the 10-12 neighborhood so we got bullish months ago at 8-9..would prefer a better entry or play breakout of 1450-1475 on news. Sugar has been our pal since 12.30 and we remain bullish on pullbacks but LT MA is around 14. Coffee is another bull market since it broke above 100-110 and as long as it remains ABOVE that level we remain positive although supplies are tight..the big crop of 2020 may still be adequate..ABOVE 140 Kaching! There are ETF’s that let you paly this JOIN US TODAY!–GET OUR FOCUS LIST
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REMEMBER Ther is a substantial risk of loss in short term trading and option trading and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm/broker/advisor to determine your own suitability. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Use Risk Capital Only
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Option Professor-Pullback Done or Rollover?-Must Read
March 5 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations
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Greetings!….Well we told you last week that S&P 3960 could be a top as some cyclical studies have this time frame as a period of correction that COULD take us to 3500-3600 at first blush…..followed by a rally….followed by ultimate lows for the pullback in the May-June time frame. The last few years have seen March-April a bit rocky and you all have been told the story—tech -growth valuation will COMPRESS as yields rise and a switch to VALUE-BANKS-ENERGY-DIVIDEND PAYERS will unfold-exactly what has occurred. Whether it be the ARK funds or Tesla or ZM….we have corrected. We have told you this for MONTHS. This upcoming week is potentially pivotal in that their are 1-2-3 yr MA’s on the 1 yr graph all coming in at S&P 3840-3880 area PLUS highs at S&P 3915 3940 3960…..the VIX still holding ABOVE 20…..so we are saying that if the market can take OUT those areas we will not step in front and will open are eyes to the S&P 4000-4170 potential…..but China’s talking about avoiding bubbles & Powell seems to be sanguine about rate jumps and selloffs so maybe a cooling off period BEFORE the 2nd half pop is in the cards. Growth is 2/3 of many indexes so if repriced valuations continue–hard to rally far. Long term we believe in the bull market but the road may not be as smooth as glass…we saw a selling vacuum this week on rates and a buying vacuum on a jobs report suggesting the service sector is going back. No surprise there as we anticipate a collapse in the unemployment rate by year end and a spike in GDP fueled by record household saving and personal liberation. Where are you positioned? SUBSCRIBE to get our FOCUS LISTS & Add Value.
Stock Market
Since March-May 2020; We have told readers that EARNINGS would get back to peak levels & more quickly as the speed of the decent would be matched by the speed of the ascent…WHY?…because the key OPERATING LEVERAGE would allow it as less employees & office space would pay off. We told you that the STEEPENING of the yield curve would be welcomed by the Fed and that Banks cyclicals & dividend payers (VALUE) would see a resurgence and tech & growth were way ahead of their skis (value added opinion if heeded). There is a graph on Russell Value compare to Russell Growth and it memorializing the TURN of our Opinion that a MAJOR turn has occurred and those sectors MAY be the new growth engines for many portfolios…..we still believe in the barbell approach BUT value may be the 30% of the index that gives the boost as we reopen. SHORT TERM…we consider trim and hedges on the banks & energy sector as rates may not spike further and OPEC is just waiting for the summer driving season to supply the market in our view and unanimity of bullishness is getting hot. Unusual option activity was rampant this week including INFY VWAC. Many stocks were of interest to us including ORCL CAT BUNGE ADM Senata TMUS XOM GE HP TGT ….HAL APA DVN plus LEN LEG FCX AUY NOK EUFN & more SUBSCRIBERS get our PORTFOLIO ROADMAP-email optionprofessor@gmail
Bond Market
A lot of people are LOSING MONEY in Bonds. This was something we warned about for many many months. The 10 yr Treasury made new highs in yields but are still in an area of resistance as many people are jumping on the 2% bandwagon…TLT held it’s lows @ 136… so let’s see if it wants to go to the 130 area (2017 highs)….we told readers for about a year Bonds were in trouble as the blow off high at 180 and the huge BUBBLE of debt at low yields had to end badly…and it continues as joke companies borrow at dirt yields (RECORD Junk issuance this year)….if we get growth & inflation (due to shortages & demand)….imagine the selling of people who want out….however since money market funds pay practically ZERO…corporates bonds & french pastry junk is the new money markets. PGIM thinks that after the stimulus wears off yields on 10yr back at 1%?? Next week we get auctions 10-30yrs….the better come off better than the 7yr EM debt has been tanking.. but stuff that doesn’t not have much DURATION risk have hung in their.. things we spoke of like HY/VFSUX/PFF/VMLUX and Floating Rates-FFRHX-IF we turn DEBT into a bear….they all may get nailed. Are you interested in Income…Be A SUBSCRIBER–JOIN US-get-FOCUS LIST
US Dollar-International Markets
We have told you for awhile that the DXY 88-90 area was support for the Dollar and the whole world was short…leading us to a counter trend rally that if it could take out 92 may wipe out some short but NOT put us in a sustainable uptrend. We peaked thru 92 BUT closed under so if the breakout of 91.50 hold we still could see further strength as our YIELD ADVANTAGE has returned…one of many reasons we tanked from 104. The Japanese Yen has been firm (our thirst for their products) but the European currencies (Euro-Pound Sterling) plus the Canadian & Australian currencies have lost altitude. In World Stock Markets; China-Asia-Emerging Markets Brasil-Mexico have been losing ground while Europe is hanging on by the skin of their teeth……while their VALUATIONS are compelling; we have a Dollar rising & the ECB is pulling back plus their Covid Exodus has not been a rocket ship at all. One country on the upswing is Chile (ECH)-up 5+% so far China has a meeting going over their 5 year plan to cover EV’s, HK elections, tech independence, carbon emissions, wide bodied aircraft, AI Robotics-components, digital currency, bio-pharma, advanced medical devices ect. With our PORTFOLIO ROADMAP; we share our ideas with SUBSCRIBERS
Crude Oil Natural Gas
Everyone was shocked this week when OPEC decided NOT to increase production & west Canadian oil sand cut production as well….let’s put our common sense hats on for a minute….would you hike production now BEFORE Covid ends & the summer driving season or would you squeeze prices further creating higher prices going into the DEMAND period and then hit the market when prices are good & buyers are prevalent?? So be careful at 70 & above on WTI as Texas has thawed and summer is ahead. We did have a RECORD drop in supplies so like MANY markets the SUPPLY CHAINS are choked but that is not a permanent calamity….be aware of that. We have been bulls since last March (-37 a barrel) and our FOCUS LIST has been a true All-Star but are monitoring this run as we have come a long way fast. We told you Natural Gas has lost its legs lately BUT not out standard LNG who made new 52 week highs Friday (up almost 3oo% from lows) but hit almost a 40% premium to the 200 day….maybe time to protect. SUBSCRIBERS are updated with our PORTFOLIO ROADMAP…..email to join
Gold Silver Copper Platinum BitCoin
Gold & Silver hit the skids again this week….no surprise to our reader as we told you since the run up to Gold $2100 & Silver $30 that they were way OVERBOUGHT and would take a period to work of excesses & AVOID THEM ….exactly what has gone gone on…..NOW we are becoming more interested as we are closer (broke some) of the MA’s and we MEASURED the GOLD rise from $1040 to $2063 and took a 38.2% correction…..we get $1675….Friday we got close to that neighborhood and bounced….GDX around $30 was our target so we are sniffing around and like Silver ABOVE 22-24 & PLATINUM $850-$1100 as a potential lows. Next week we’ll get more important price evidence….while we still believe there could be a future in precious metals.. our concerns that inflation is transitory/safe havens lost luster/higher yields could mean higher dollar/and remember the last time Gold spiked (2012) it took 8 yrs to get your money back..believe true breakout is above 1850-1950 Copper bounced this week after tanking on news of supplies hitting China. We warned that our favorite FCX which has been on our FOCUS LIST for over a year was getting into rarified air so trim/hedge was in order. BitCoin which we use GBTC as a proxy for has ben very volatile and while we were very BULLISH at 10-20 (10000-20000)…we told readers avoid buying on strength and WAIT for inevitable DROPS of 30-50% which we’ve had 2 this year already…..very ILLIQUID as finite supply in the hands of a small % and therefore risk capital dollar cost averaging has been out mantra…adoption is growing and some say 100K by EOY is still ok in the year after halving. SUBSCIBERS get FOCUS LIST in these….email us at optionprofessor@gmail
Soybeans Sugar Coffee
We have told readers about these three markets for the last year & the three Amigos have been very very good this last year as demand has trumped supplies and all three still have shown legs in the last month. HOWEVER we see that all three are substantially above their LT MA’s which opened the door for pullbacks. Soybeans got great news out of Brasil that weather was killing their crop…let’s see if it takes out 14.50 or fails under 13.75. Sugar is above 16 (former resistance) and maybe the weather in South America will help while Coffee needs to break above 140 to see a possible spike and this week it faded. LEARN MORE..email optionprofessor@ gmail.com & JOIN US!
REMEMBER There is a substantial risk of loss in short term trading & option trading and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm and your broker/advisor to determine your own suitability. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Use Risk Capital Only
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Ask Option Professor-Have Markets Topped? Read More
February 26th 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations
Greetings Everybody—The Winds of Change were blowing on Wall Street this week as the rapidity of the increase in interest rates gave sellers legs. BEFORE we provide our insight This Week….we want to REVIEW & ASK you a couple of things. STOCK MARKET- 1. We were bullish coming off the panic March Lows as we said OPERATING LEVERAGE would make earnings zoom. 2. We initially told you that Tech & Covid stocks (PTON ZM TDOC) would lead. 3. We then told you to start switching to VALUE (Banks-Energy-Retail -Industrials) as the yield curve would steepen & consumers were flush with money as their leisure expenses were eliminated & transfer pay arrived. 3. We recently said that the end of Feb and up thru June could see a selloff as the PMI’s & ISM numbers may roll over (leading indicator of spending). interest rates were rising (GDP-Stimulus-Inflation) plus many technical indicators suggested markets were way overbought (moving averages-valuations-rampant speculation-margin debt). 4. We told you the Gold run up was parabolic and would not hold up and we would see months of back & forth action to work off excesses. We told you Copper was going to fly and BitCoin was going to have a huge move up as the year after halving is great. 5. We told you to avoid long dated bonds and the Dollar would fall but temporarily hold 88-90 on the Index. We said early in the year Europe, Asia & Emerging Markets would have a good run because of that U.S. Dollar weakness and our thirst for imported goods. 6. We told you Crude Oil was going higher since we had a capitulation at -$37 a barrel and due to lower rig counts, no private equity-fracking and a return of better demand. 7. We told you that Soybeans were a steal at $8-$9 as China was on the horizon as a huge buyer, also that Sugar was a bargain at 12.30 and Coffee above 100-110 represented a large opportunity…..Readers said to us & we believe we have ADDED VALUE to your research through our timely opinions & observations. NOW we Invite you to become a SUBSCRIBER so that we can share SPECIFIC ideas via our FOCUS LIST….NOW we ASK you email us today at [email protected] & get the Special Monthly/Yearly Rates. There are a number of ways to SUBSCRIBE so Learn How to Join Up Today!
The two operative words we would use regarding the markets right now are PERSPECTIVE & MODERATION. Interest Rates have risen sharply (some compare it to Scuba as when you come up faster than your bubbles you get the bends). HOWEVER it is important to note that REAL YIELDS after we can adjust for inflation are still VERY LOW. The sell off we have seen in Stocks Bonds & Commodities and the valuation compression due to higher rates should see prices MODERATE in the months to come as Inflation is unlikely to surge much past 2 1/2% as structurally we are set up as in the past. Inventory build up and Constraints on oil supply may be transitory in Q2. Copper supplies are increasing to China, Texas refineries are rushing to open to get in on spreads & applications for home buying may be leveling off while inflation hedges sold off like Gold (-$46 Friday) & BitCoin (GBTC lost 22% a it traded at a Discount rather than a Premium), TSLA & the ARK funds also lost ground. IF we see S&P UNDER 3800 and VIX readings ABOVE 25-30 it is reasonable that we may NOT see a move to SP 4000 before a slide. We anticipated the year end rally & the January Effect but now & for awhile have felt collars-married puts-replacement calls have made a lot of sense. We explain to subscribers the mechanics of these hedging techniques.
Stock Market
Lots of data came out this week with claims showing a drop, durable goods (large ticket items) jumping 8% though food & services numbers were weaker. The Consumer is spending +2.4% (biggest increase in 7 months) and personal income up the most in 9 months. Inflation was up to 1.5% annualized with a big jump over the last 2 months but still below the Feed target of 2-2 1/2%. One concern is Virus Variants which some believe may pour cold water on recent improvements in Covid numbers.. we’ll see. Some of the stocks we’ll discuss are ORCL LPX QCOM KEY CME TWTR WSR UBA and GS PNC MET MMC-banks tech energy & Mid Caps and many more. Our VALUE stocks outperformed Growth in February the most in decades.
Bond Market
The story here is one we have told you about for many many months. TLT topped out at 180 on a blow off possibly generational top…when it broke 155 it cemented the next move down…we said to stay with short term corporates and avoid duration like the plague. In fact Jamie Dimon said months ago he would not touch 10 yr Treasuries with a 10 foot pole. We are oversold so a rally is always possible but we have ideas on ways to generate income so join up and check out our Focus List. High Yield is ok because the average duration is only 3 1/2 yrs and credit risk has not been an issue,, speaking of issues we saw $84 Billion already come out in high yield 2021. The 7 year Treasury auction was a disaster as it had the worst bid to cover ratio ever…no rest for the wicked as there is a 10 yr auction March 10 and a 30 yr auction March 11….hope there’s ink in that Fed printing machine. Investment grade has a average duration of 8 1/2 yrs so caveat emptor.
US Dollar/International Markets
As we told you recently the Dollar Index has been holding the 88-90 area and a move above 92 may instigate a blow out the shorts kind of rally. The yield advantage we enjoyed over Asia & Europe has returned so hence the positive spin but the fact that no one wanted our 7 yr Treasuries is trouble. The International markets were on our focus list all last year a the Dollar tanked but we have been fading it lately…the right thing to do. Brazil is in the tank but Mexico is hanging in there so far buoyed by our import lust. Subscribers get a look at our focus list in this arena so join up today.
Crude Oil/ Natural Gas
We been positive on oil for about a year but now we are concerned that Texas refineries are rushing to get back & Saudi & Russia may want to pump. Supplies dropped 8% in 2020 (something we told you would happen with all the supply constraints) as this was the first time in 4yrs for a drop. Later we should see further upside but hedging was a good idea EOM. Natural gas prices tanked in the last 10 days and we told you our favorite LNG was ripe for a pause to refresh….we do maintain a Focus List here too.
Gold Silver Copper Platinum BitCoin
Listening to our view on precious metals has saved people from getting whacked in Silver & Gold as priced retreated in both bit more so in Gold which of no surprise to us is still working off that absurd run to $2100 last year….but we do believe in it long term and now that we have lots of dry powder because we didn’t chase prices.. we will look for an entry point. Platinum has started the year off well and as long as 800-1000 holds up we believe the re-opening of car production could cause a catalytic converter squeeze on supplies. Copper is seeing supplies being sent to China causing a selloff which we told you would come as prices are way above moving averages and our stocks that we brought to your attention many months ago FCX SCCO hit nosebleed levels. BitCoin may have seen the bloom come off the rose as GBTC got hit for 22% while Bitcoin itself fell 17% due to a loss of premium in GBTC as it traded at a discount suggesting mass exodus. We told you Bitcoin is illiquid but finite supplied so EXPECT 30%-50%+ declines and use risk capital and dollar cost averaging if you want to play ball. We have a Focus List for metals-mining-crypto… so email us & Join Us Today!
Soybeans Sugar Coffee
These three markets have been great for us all year but we are concerned that Soybean prices are far from their moving averages (overbought) and we hear some grains (Corn) may be seeing demand back off due to high prices…we’ll see….a drop under 13 could spell correction. Sugar has been our buddy since 12.30 and recently hit a high of 17.52..not bad…but like soybeans..prices are far from moving averages but staying above 16 still sets up well but the 200 day is in the 13’s. Coffee has held 100-110 but has had trouble with 140 resistance.. the real money is on the other side. We’ll see if a stronger dollar and higher interest rates are catalyst to close the gap between current prices and 50-200 day MA’s. We keep up a Focus List here.
Again..email [email protected]….Learn How to Join Us Today!
REMEMBER There is a substantial risk of loss in short term trading and option trading and it is not right for everyone. Consult you brokerage firm/broker/advisor to determine your own suitability. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Use Risk Capital Only
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Stocks-Bonds-Metals- It’s Time to Re-Price Markets-Read On
February 19, 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations
Hello Everybody!….Will we RE-PRICE after the substantial change in interest rates and seasonality? We are entering the last week of Feb to be followed by the Ides of March when sometimes rather violent swings can occur as the January Effect wears off and certain realities start to rear their ugly heads before spring. We read and listen to everybody we believe has merit and then reach our own conclusions (suggest you do the same)….some cycle guys think we have seen a peak at Dow 31700 area and that March starts the first leg down. There are others that see one more run at the highs followed by a sharp decline. We have heard buy the pullback don’t chase the tape. We see a continued unwillingness for sustained moves on the VIX under 20….we see P/E ratios called into questions as the 10yr Treasury yield hit 1.35% at breakneck speed…..we see divergences between RSI’s and the new highs…plus complacency/bullishness/speculation rampant. In the last few years the March-April time frame has coincided with declines so we respect that potential. We have stayed bullish on banks & energy and have been rewarded…..we have stayed with value for dividends & capital catch up.. again a good idea….we have avoided the boom bust stuff (gamestop/pot) and avoided duration risk which we said would come with a steeper yield curve. International stocks have been good to us as Europe/Asia/China have all benefited from our consumer’s buying binge but a pause to refresh may also be on the table for them. We are ready with our defensive tactics like trimming, collars, covered calls, married puts, replacement trades using call spreads and more….levels like S&P 3850 & 3800 & VIX 25 are big and could tip the boat….the next few weeks may be binary….big up or rollover..We do have tactics to share with subscribers-join..us-@ optionprofessor@gmail
Stock Market
WOW lots to cover here this week as the FANG lost steam while regional banks, energy, copper & rare earth metals, block chain (RIOT), Chinese Internet, Transports & small caps rocked on. We have ideas in these and other areas for subscribers. Cathie Wood took a shot at Palantir and those shares jumped…Wells Fargo (one we got bullish at 25) jumped as regulators are calling off their dogs….HLT..Bookings..Cruises…and a lot of other epicenter stocks we brought to your attention zoomed as vaccine infection news greeted with a glow. Canada’s launching a ETF on BitCoin (our flavor has been GBTC as readers know)…Boeing CAT DE Twitter all made highs and the gaming stocks we spoke of (DKNG PENN LVS) all went on runs. We have ideas currently….subscribe at [email protected] & Learn
Bond Market
We spoke to you about rising rates and steepening yield curve and how that would fuel banks & regionals & value stocks….exactly what happened….a break under 155 TLT was the final card to fall since the generational top at 180. Powell & friends talk this week and that could calm down the parabolic ascent (% terms) that went on this week but people seem comfortable with 1.5%-2% 10 yr yields as a forecast for 2021 as a robust GDP coming has inflation-growth-stimulus hawks on the edge of their seats..rightfully so! Keep your duration short and pepper the portfolio with high yield EM debt preferred and floating loans but avoid duration where a big bad wolf lives. We have ideas on fixed income..learn how to subscribe…send us an email
Us Dollar/International Markets
Subscribers and regular readers know our position on the US Dollar has been negative since DXY topped at 104 & broke 100 as printing press Fed & our yield advantage going out the window were the main culprits BUT we still have the Fed going nuts (Fed balance sheet at record approaching 8 Trillion) yet the hike in yields had put our yield advantage back in play and so far 88-90 has held. The Yen Euro Aussie & Pound Sterling has remained firm and look like they’re ready to roll..but IF DXY breaks 92..things change. The international stocks have been a favorite of ours as we told you the world is feeding on exports to us and our consumer spending…also global valuations are much more attractive and they’re stimulating as well BUT at these levels we could see some give back as we are extended above MA’s.. Learn our Focus List for Europe Asia Latin America…subscribe today!
Crude Oil/Natural Gas
Well we have been bullish this sector since March and the more real it gets the more they pay…throw in an ice storm in Texas where supplies are cut and you get a heck of a profitable scenario!….Carl Ichan jumped into the game with FE this week to go along with Buffett in OXY and many many more we told you about….caution in that weather will change soon and supplies will be restored so expect volatility but longer term PE money has left the building so demand + tighter supply = a bright future potentially. Our natural gas pick has been LNG and no reason to jump that train yet. We have a Focus List for subscribers…inquire at [email protected]
Gold Silver Copper Platinum BitCoin
Same story we have has on Gold & Silver for months….relax prices aren’t going anywhere until the MA’s catch up with the price that went parabolic last year (down 6% in 2021)….HOWEVER….if Silver can break $30 and Gold $1950 the winds of change may blow quickly….SUPPORT on Gold $1630-1775 and Silver 22-24…GDX $30 bucks…so we are getting closer to better values.. the 1 yr MA is around $1825 so a close above that would wake us up a bit. The price of copper has been an all star as demand totally dwarfs supplies. We have told readers of FCX & SCCO for many many months..they still shine Platinum has been our dark horse as we believe it’s scarcity will lead to a squeeze in price should the auto industry demand for catalytic converters jump in Q3 Q4…up 25% YTD..not bad. BitCoin keeps getting more strret cred by the day BUT you still have an illiquid market so while we told you LAST YEAR we believe the the year after halving is huge upside and 100k+ possible…we respect 30%-50% correction will come…then add spec funds We having mining shares & other plays on our Focus List…so consider learning about subscribing..inquire @ [email protected]
Soybeans Sugar Coffee
The three amigos are trying to make headway as we believe supplies are tight and demand is good. Sugar hit 17 (we told you be bullish since 12.30) and Coffee has held support at 100-110 and this week hit 130 (if it blows thru 140 it may be in the news) and finally Soybeans biggest problem has been its success as the move to 14+ from 8 has been swift and the technical overbought condition is still being worked off…..we inform subscribers on ways to play this with ETF’s and mutual funds like Vanguard’s VCMDX which has off to a great start. SUBSCRIBE @ [email protected]
There is a substantial risk of loss in short term trading and option trading and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm/broker/advisor to determine your own suitability. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Use Risk Capital Only
Early Edition-1st Was Banks & Energy Now REITS-FOMO? Read On
February 12 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations
Greetings!….Well we have Valentines Day & Presidents Day long weekend upon us so we have plans as we hope you do…..so here’s our Early Edition. Again our view has been that the 3900-4000 S&P area and more importantly by EOM some forces may change the rampant FOMO (fear of missing out) that has permeated the stock market and others. We told our readers that banks and energy were a steal many months ago as we said the yield curve would steepen (it did) helping the banks profitability & buybacks and oversized loss provisions was extra fuel to the fire…..we said back in March that -37 on Crude was a joke and that rig count & fracking drops would affect supplies (Shell says production peaked) as well as return of demand so we said stocks like CVX XOM PSX VLO SLB OXY ect. would fly (they did). NOW we are turning toward the REIT market where yield hungry investors. pension plans who have to meet targets may find juicy yields in REITS enticing backed by real estate in various forms…stocks such as WSR UBA EQR SPG and others have turned up in the last month and have a long way to go before making new highs-our opinion-defensive-good yields- MA’s Up FOMO can be a dangerous thing so in the next 2 weeks 2 scenarios make sense due to the Jan Effect ending and strong momentum…..we either stay in our prescribed range and turn down in March OR we blow thru SP4000 and take a shot at 4070-4150….BUT when something is overbought basis its Moving Averages…it doesn’t become less so when it goes even higher…so stay with the trend…..dust off your hedging techniques (covered calls married puts/trim/replacement calls/call spreads–if they play Blood Sweat & Tears..What Goes Up Must Come Down (cannabis-Gamestop) You’re Ready
To subscribe to our report on specific opinions Income Growth Speculation [email protected]….our goal is the add value to your research
Stock Market
Stocks continue making new highs with many things going on as usual. Elon Musk took a $$$$$Billion and a Half and dumped it into BitCoin which we believe does 2 things…one is it fast tracked legitimization of BitCoin and also makes TSLA a proxy for BitCoin ownership possibly creating a new wave of buyers who can dismiss their automotive numbers and the fact that about everyone is getting into what was their EV market (very clever)….about 8% of balance sheet but when we see 20-30-50% swings…we’ll see how that goes Palantir got a deal with IBM and the chips shortage has sent SMH NVDA AMD flying high but not so great news for the auto who’ve estimated losses of $61 B due to inability to deliver. Lots of record highs and 52 week highs DIS DE GOOG LEN (housing prices up 14.(%) COF PYPL Fortinet Service Now also United Rentals (infrastructure) gaming DKNG CHUD PENN BETZ and many others BUT MGM gives you a double whammy when they open Vegas. Large pension plans are allocating into stocks which is bullish BUT a lot is known and being discounted and SOMEONE is selling into the FOMO craze.
Bond Market
We told readers months ago that yields would be rising this year (March blowoff at 180) and as long as we stay UNDER TLT 155…higher yield make sense to a point BUT beware the inflation numbers stink and IF stocks sell off in March (2 weeks away) then a heavily shorted market like the Bonds is vulnerable to a fast and furious re-pricing…we have liked short-limted duration corporates & Munis plus ETF’s with duration on munis less than 6 years….preferred high yield secured loans EM debt could be part of the mix Do you want to learn our focus [email protected] & subscribe
Us Dollar/International Markets
Same story with US Dollar…the whole world is short and DXT refuses to break 88-90 so far which means Euro-BP Aus Can J-Yen are all stumbling around….is it possible the rise in our yields puts back in play the yield advantage story?….we’ll see…The Japanese, China, Korean markets have benefited by our consumer spending during the pandemic big time as their exports have exploded and manufacturing in China also zooming (FXI UP) in Latin America we see EWW Mexico and EWZ Brazil have stalled…if the take out Jan lows..it could accelerate to the downside. We have a number of ways to play this on our focus list…subscribe at option professor@gmail
Crude Oil/Natural Gas
We said to readers 9 months+ ago that energy and stocks thereof were a steal and as they said in Wall Street…the illusion is now real….China’s big. could we pull back…absolutely but we feel the upside is still there after corrections.. Natural Gas has been bouncing up but some of the our stocks have stalled near double tops after 50% pops from the lows…so caution here seems ok
We have focus lists on each area of the market-subscribe to add us today
Gold Silver Copper Platinum BitCoin
Regular readers know we have been NOT bullish for the metals to take off (actually said it would not happen)…we’re using Gold 1950-2000 and Silver 28-30 prices as CEILINGS until proven otherwise…inflation number stink BitCoin competition (GBTC) and the parabolic move that is still working off excesses are the main culprits…China buying binge on commodities has sent copper & platinum to their highest prices in many years (something we told readers months ago) but the risk that buying comes in wave and Chinese personal incomes/spending have NOT recovered so caveat emptor BitCoin is getting institutional interest (Bank of NY Mellon servicing) so fast tracking is on BUT we see an Illiquid market as having risk of 30-50% pullbacks at any point (just had one weeks back 45k to 30K) and we see a double potential by year end..so it’s wild…risk capital dollar cost averaging Want to know our focus list on metals & BitCoin? email us & subscibe
Soybeans Sugar Coffee
China’s buying has sent soy & grains jamming but this week was correction time something we told readers because of how far it was from MA’s….still a bull market but was more interesting to us when we brought it to your attention at Soy 8-10 then at 14……Sugar’s another one that’s tough to trust…problems in India & elsewhere had prices rocking to well over 16 (we got bullish at 12.25) and this week back under 16 it went…looking for entry on drop….Coffee was great for us before (100-137) BUT unable to break 140 BUT still above support 100-110 so still chopping wood
We have focus lists on all areas plus you can email questions you have Most of you subscribe to services/letters–we ask you try use–email us UR interest
REMEMBER There is a substantial risk of loss in short term trading and option trading and it is not right for everyone Consult your brokerage firm and broker to determine your suitability Past performance not necessarily indicative of future growth Use Risk Capital Only
Stock Market-Record Highs-2nd Chance Coming?Read On
February 5 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations
Greetings…What a Week!!….The market was tanking over last weekend with the S&P hitting 3650….then we got a turn and we popped thru SP 3740 to move to SP 3800…then we broke that resistance and made a play for the highs at SP 3860….only to finish the week at RECORD highs and blowing out all the shorts with stops above SP 3860……news of the Dems plowing the $1.9 Trill recovery package thru got the bulls running & bears running scared. We have been telling readers about yield curve steepening (banks) and the tightening of oil supplies (XLE) and that theme was golden this week. But in this market…pin the tail on the donkey works as a rising tide lifts most boats. The VIX is back down toward 20 area which has corresponded with highs in the markets (as 40 has been bottoms)…..and Nirvana is a great state of mind but as it relates to stocks..no much of a history. The unemployment report showed the recovery is fading and the trees don’t grow to the sky. We have said a rally toward 3900-4000 SP was a real possibility as seasonality and earnings would be powerful to start the year. We also feel that by the end of Q1 and then Q2 prices could be quite surprising & substantially different. We are not Carnac the Magnificent but we do see the potential for the winds of change to blow as a shift from unbridled optimism (now) moves closer to realism (next 60-120 days). So we see a potential dip followed by a short term top by EOM…..followed by a sharp drop next month toward the highs of Sept/Oct…..followed by and advance toward the lows of last month….followed by lows by the end of Q2 at levels that test long term monthly moving averages. HOWEVER all of this will need to be confirmed by price so for now we see parameters of SP 3800 area on the downside and SP 4000 area on the upside and a meaningful break of that range may either confirm our best guess or require a huge re-examination of our price and time prophesy. Bull & Bear arguments can always be made but the level of speculation…bullishness…valuations…VIX.. uncertainty…distance of stock price from moving averages tells us that it’s time to remember Bernard Baruch & Warren Buffett (Buy Straw Hats in the Winter & Be Greedy When People are Fearful & Fearful When People are Greedy). We have specific opinions on ways to create income…growth and speculation…Learn How To Subscribe ..email [email protected]
Stock Market
Well the Gamestop story ended this week as we explained last week by falling 80%….the more we hear about the Robin Hood situation the less we like it…..selling order flow (outlawed in Canada Australia India & UK as problematic)…..margins & settlements…majority of business in options (speculation) not investing….could be a clamp down on coordinated price manipulation, suitability issues, and other regs so that social media can be used but not without boundaries nor responsibility..better long term for all. Speaking of regulation…the incumbents of such moves generally are the winners as newcomers have a hard time complying and competing…so look at the big to get bigger meaning our view is FB AMZN GOOG MSFT will come out the other side of all this banter the winners. Next week we get more EARNINGS from Soft bank KKR DD CSCO (great week!) Lyft/Uber GM Toyota MGM (gaming!) KO UA (great week!) PEP Kraft Expedia Astra Zeneca DIS (strong on D-Plus/Sports/Open Theme Parks)…..You can Receive our own Focus List.. Learn How to Subscribe @ [email protected]
Bond Market
Yields are Rising and Yield Curves are Steepening…something we told our readers for the last 9 MONTHS…..so selling long term bonds and buying the banks has been the way to go…our subscribers get specific details of our Focus List….AAPL is borrowing because some morons are lending money for decades UNDER 1%!!…TLT gave a recent sell when it broke 155 but really we told subscribers that the blow off top in March may have been the antithesis of the top in rates during Volker’s time. We told readers to look to tax free Munis as higher taxes and state relief bodes well for them….short term corporates have served us well as short rates are under the Fed’s control. We also said sprinkling High Yield Preferred and EM Sovereign Debt could work…we have a Focus List for Income..Learn How to subscribe–email us.
US Dollar/International Markets
We got this one right as we got negative on the DXY in the 104-100 area and short term positive in the 88-90 range…were bullish on the Aussie/Euro/BP ect at lower levels and warned of a pause to refresh (now)…..In the last few months we spoke of Latin America (it rallied) and the break to the downside of BABA at 300 (fell to 215)….also the great values in Europe (Draghi’s back!) while the weaker dollar would send EM soaring (it did)…..we will be informing subscribers what we see next…email us and Learn How to Join.
Crude Oil/Natural Gas
We’ve been bullish oil for 9 months as we saw a -37 as capitulation…OPEC keeps supplies tight…lower rigs & fracking..return of demand…no private equity $$$..we liked the upside and were rewarded…SLB CVX COP PSX VLO HAL OXY..common stocks..the bonds where yields were huge (non callable OXY 10 yr @ 35%!) Natural Gas has been a favorite with stocks like LNG…we have new ideas so Let us Know… Learn How to Subscribe @optionprofessor @gmail.com
Gold Silver Copper Platinum BitCoin
Gold & Silver tanked this week (Silver had a short lived ill advised short squeeze) BUT they did hold & bounced off support at 1776 Gold & 26 bucks on Silver….Platinum we believe could offer the best value as it is 10X rarer than Gold and trades at a huge discount (+34 bucks Friday)..it’s still a bull market in but the problem is the parabolic moves earlier this year created excesses (away from moving averages) that still are being worked out…so could have another leg down BUT if we clear 28-30 Silver and 1950-2000 Gold…forget about cutting bait.. time to fish! Copper had a huge run which we told you about at 2.50 but has taken a pause to refresh with it some of our copper successes (FCX) but we talked of hedging gains with collars married puts and replacement option trades….LEARN more & subscribe to get our Focus List….BitCoin was someting we brought to your attention (GBTC) at 10-15 and it went parabolic…we warned that 2% of accounts control 95% of supply (illiquid) so 30-50% corrections commonplace…we got one and now it’s off…Learn where we think it’s going….subscribe today!
Soybeans Sugar Coffee
We told readers about Soybeans at 8 bucks and it ran to 12…then to 16…pull back to 13..now back up but still way away from moving averages (all grains)….so we have levels that we are monitoring plus China moves….Sugar has some supply problems out of South America & oil rising is bullish as well..we’ve been on it since 12.30 and remain bullish….Coffee was a big runner earlier this year and the big run will occur when we break 140 as that seem to be a level holding it back…..we update subscribers on our calls for these so Learn How you can Join Up…email us,,,by the way there is an ETF in the Commodity sector that is up almost 50% from it’s 52 week lows….What is it?….Subscribe Now…..email us & Learn How!
REMEMBER There is a substantial risk of loss in short term trading and option trading and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm/broker/advisor to determine your own suitability. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Use Risk Capital Only.
Stock Market-Sell The Fact- VIX Spikes-What Now? Read
January 29th 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations
Welcome Back!…We told you last week that the financial gave you a roadmap of how things would play out during this earnings season….that is great reports followed by selloffs and this week gave you further evidence as AAPL & many others had RECORD NUMBERS but had substantial DROPS like JPM Citi BAC ect….no surprise to us…..blame it on Reddit & squeezes if it makes you feel better but the reality is Powell said “cool economy” and also Apple is looking for wearables & IPads to soften in Q2 and SBUX wasn’t so keen on the near term. Like we said…only a moron wouldn’t be looking for a correction with all the indicators in the red zone. SUBSCRIBERS were also told about a feeling we had that may be a factor….Congress is looking for a huge check to be written for stimulus…how’s that going to happen if we go to SPX 4000?…it’s like telling the welfare office you’re running late because your Rolls Royce is getting washed:):)…..everything got hit this week from Value (financials-industrials-materials-energy) to Tech & Communications… the place to be was vaccine guys MRNA NVAX while JNJ followed the sell the fact crowd. OK.. let’s talk about the elephant in the room & our opinion….the shorts in those stocks had too many positions (more stock sold than exists by 40%!) & too much leverage (sound familiar) and and every time specs buy call options….. the market maker must hedge by buying stock plus all the guys short panic to get out by buying stock and there goes the vacuum. They shut down trading because the players losses were exceeding their deposits leaving the casinos (Robin Hood Interactive ect) on the hook to pay the winners and chase down losers for money OR shut it down to stop the music and sort out where the firm is at (Do you want to be the next MF or Lehman?)…..sounds crappy but get your magnifying glass out on those docs you signed and buried in there you will se it’s perfectly legal. Some of the shares include GME BBY BB KOSS AMC NOK NAKD AAL TRVG CTRM SNDL and others but we told SUBSCRIBERS that our experience is that when the short covering is done and the specs are out and restrictions are put on…the end game is a collapse in price….this is an old story.. ask the Hunt Bros. 1980 RIGHT NOW…we must remember the LONG game which is that Millennials are in the game and will be inheriting trillions in the next 10 yrs. Household have money and no interest in the bank…according to some 94% of flows went into Bonds in the last 10yrs and only 6% in stocks….rates are low and while inflation will push them higher…not enough…so expect an ongoing bull market over time with valuations expanding (S&P 30 P/E?)….not unlike a real estate market (L.A. & NYC & now nationwide) where the money flows come in and now you see per sq. foot values go from 200 bucks per to 800… our LONG TERM MOVING AVERAGES (which have only been penetrated a few times since 2011 & only extremely briefly as they have continued to uptrend)…..come in around S&P 3000 with shorter term ones at 3250/3120 so there is a lot of real estate for the market to move around and still be bullish….end of story…GDP according to Bank of America is projected up 6% in 2021 and consumer spending on cards is UP 9% in Jan 2021 OVER Jan 2020…should show up in prices later…so dollar cost average your way to a nice portfolio and maybe focus where VALUATIONS are reasonable and VALUATION (P/E) expansion may be more pronounced in the months & years ahead & what the heck..some pay very sizeable dividends to boot! To SUBSCRIBE and Get our ONGOING IDEAS email optionprofessor@gmail
Stock Market
The story this week was great companies make great profits but get sold off as Q2 looks dodgy and losers in the Reddit game may be selling their liquid winners to rebalance or take from Peter to pay Paul. Hey liquidity problems certainly has something to do with BitCoin & TSLA meteoric rise & also we know sometimes declines and order imbalances are at the root of volatility. The VIX had a double peak at about 38 this week and Friday only saw a 33 handle despite the drop so a bounce would not be shocking….take out 38 and 3600 SPX for cause and the shock may be testing 3400 (last years highs) & an outside shot at 3200 (the highs of June 2020 & pullback lows of Q4 2020 There is a lot of rose colored glasses still out there….while getting above SPX 3740 could fill the gap at 3780…..we really need closes ABOVE 3830-3860 to re-open the SPX 4000 banter….we’re flexible..don’t make trends..follow them We like fintech innovative, genomic, space, robotic/AI …ETF’s. & a focus list. EARNINGS next week include AMZN UPS PFE QCOM PYPL REGN ATVI GOOG CMG TMO MRK BMY FORD CARDINAL HEALTH & many more SUBSCRIBERS get our opinions/ideas.,.. email us optionprofessor@gmail.
Bond Market
Central Banks are going to have to address their balance sheets at some point and inflation, growth and higher taxes to varying degrees will play a role. This plays well with our short term investment grade and limited term municipals as a parking spot theme but longer term may also be good for our sprinklers in high yield, munis, preferred (banks), secured floating loans & TIPS… SUBSCRIBERS learn where we are focused….email us to join.
US Dollar/International Markets
We have said for the last few weeks that DXY at 88-90 may be a floor as the popularity of short the dollar combined with slow economic numbers in Europe (Germany) & Asia (Samsung missed numbers/Hong Kong got frothy EWH FXI) and with our yield advantage reinstated…the buck could rally & we’re surprised the Reddit crowd hasn’t noticed the heavy short interest. If we blow out 88-90…bar the door Katie & Yellen seems to not be a dollar bull. Rollover is a word we’d use to describe the international markets as they were extended and are now less so….if local currency drops…more to follow SUSBSCIBERS get our insight in both areas..email us optionprofessor@gmail
Crude Oil/Natural Gas
Oil shares have been in the fade mode for the last 2 weeks as demand concerns have resurfaced and supplies may be increasing..a bad combo for an extended market…we ere bullish ever since we went negative 37 bucks (obvious capitulation) and remain constructive longer term based on a solid reopening. XOM sustained it’s dividend (3rd largest in the S&P) as higher prices granted them better cash flow…we have many stocks that we have discussed and they have really taken off from 9 months ago when we started discussing them….in Natural Gas we have long liked LNG but others with some involvement like APA XTO Devon & Baker Hughes are of interest SUBSCRIBERS get current oil/gas opinions-email us optionprofessor@gmail
Gold Silver Copper BitCoin
Our view on Gold & Silver remains & has been spot on…..the mining shares are in a funk (although rumor had the Reddit crowd bidding up Silver ETF’s maybe they see a collapse in the Gold-Silver Ratio now at 68 and was at OVER 100))….and spot prices failure at Gold $1960 and Silver $28 has us feeling that patience could be a virtue…inflation is due by EOY and our view of a short term low…rally…decline and then zoom is still valid….the road to big bucks takes you thru the resistance levels..should be plenty on the other side…so when we see a green light we’ll say it…maybe if we’re lucky the metals will test longer term moving averages still well below current levels…plenty of bulls..coin buyers and others stuck in at higher levels. We have a group of Gold & Silver ideas that could be very timely by EOY. The trees don’t grow to the sky which is apropos for the Copper market which has backed off the highs as well as FCX which we’ve been keen on for months..we spoke of trimming covered calls married puts replacement trades using calls & spreads…all of which subscribers can inquire about. BitCoin is not a very liquid market so we spoke of a 30% to 50% decline coming and we had a 35% one and now it’s back up….risk capital and dollar cost averaging via GBTC is our preferred method and we share our ideas To SUBSCRIBE…Get Our Insights…email optionprofessor@gmail
Soybeans Sugar Coffee
We told our readers about soybeans and the impending China buys in the $8-$9 range and we proceeded to break resistance @ $10 and went to $12..after a pullback the break of $12 took us to a blow off top at about $15 where we saw a sizeable pullback and recently a rally..as with any parabolic move it is meandering to work off it’s excesses…to be followed by potentially more upside…..Sugar gave us a buy signal at 12.30 and we ran to 16 resistance.. we have been teased with false breaks above 16 and now trade under resistance….the road to milk and honey is ABOVE 16..let’s see if we can break & maintain prices…Coffee has been a rid that started under 100 went to 135 area back to support at 100-110 and back up toward 130 only to trade now at 122…the green pasture is ABOVE 140 and if we are in a commodity structural bull market…the future should be bright if we can sustain above 100-110….all three markets are potentially exciting in 2021 SUBSCRIBERS get updates on our views..email us @ optionprofessor @gmail
REMEMBER …..There is a substantial risk of loss in short term trading and option trading and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm/broker/advisor to determine your own suitability. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Use Risk Capital Only.
Stock Market- Is it a Pause to Refresh or Rollover? Read It
January 23, 2021 Option Professor Opinions & Observations
Welcome Back!…We saw the markets make new highs and then do a bit of a fade by the end of the week and go home with its tail between its legs. When you have excessive margin debt…Inflows into equity ETF’s and record highs on sentiment surveys plus some divergences between the new highs in some areas and the RSI….and top it off with prices WAY ABOVE their long term averages (the mean) ….. you would have to be a moron to NOT be on the look out for a correction. Areas that have been good to us like VALUE & Cyclicals ( energy, financial, industrials, materials, airlines (Dow Transports Index), hotels ect) all failed to hold the gains of early in the week. The two bright spots were the Russell 2000 (Small Caps) ran back up to close near their 52 week highs in the last 2 hours of trading and the tech heavy QQQ’s held on to most of the weekly advance. SO WHAT NOW?.. Our opinion is that the lows at SP 3740 is a key area….short term charts have rolled over and if we blow out SP 3813 and then 3740…the pullback may have just begun without hitting the SP 3900-4000 area expected by many. Next Week we have EARNINGS from KMB MSFT VZ JNJ AXP T AAPL TSLA BA FB MCD V AAL AAL LLY CAT CVX HON CP and others which is a lot of new data albeit backward looking….we suspect the RISK is that like the financials it could bring a BUY the rumor and SELL the fact outcome as Q1 and late 2020 (holiday sales) and persistent high unemployment (another claims @ 900K) could spell a stumble early in 2021 & fog up those rose colored glasses…a boatload of stimulus awaits & so does the big opportunity. Email us to learn how to subscribe to get the weekly radar list & updates.
Stock Market
While a lot of the market did seem to lose some legs this week (such as pot stocks & BitCoin-MJ & GBTC); others like AAPL MSFT TSLA GOOG FB BABA (relief to hear from Ma?) Game Stop ILMN GM PENN TEVA TDOC did well while real estate & utilities plus international (Europe Asia China) did ok……AAPL is trading near 40X and busted to a new high.. if they report accelerated growth..150 not off the table but pity the bulls if it’s a miss.. Most of these and a lot more are updated in greater detail intermittently on our focus list for subscribers. Suffice to say that preparing for any signs of a correction (covered calls, collars married puts option replacement trades) is on our radar but await price confirmation. Watch your VIX to see if we break 20 and take out SP 3875…if so the train may still have a few stops on the upside. Stocks that are in good uptrends (e.g. Financials) that have had big runs & dividends plus fat call premiums are worthy of a look from the covered call writer to capture additional cash flow & downside protection…..If you believe it’s time to take the time to Learn about the uses & risks of various tactics email us @ [email protected]
Bond Market
A bounce in the bond market off the steep sell of on TLT which had a blow off top in March at 180 and a slow steady grind lower to 150. Should stocks sell off….the bounce may have more legs as in recent time short term very bearish bets have been huge. The mantra is best case 1.35% to 1.50% on 10 yr Treasuries with whisper numbers to 2%+….. that’s with an expected handle on GDP at 6%-7%+….all we see is a stampede into Tax Free Munis in flows into ETF’s ect….an area that subscribers get complete details and of course short term treasuries as a base with high yield… loans…preferred… emerging market debt sprinkled in there to boost yield…the latter may be kept on a short leash….with state & local aid & higher taxes…we have long felt Munis that were short-intermediate term & funds with durations under 7 yrs would serve us well…so far that is exactly the case. Each week subscribers can get specifics on how we approach the fixed income game.
Us Dollar/International Markets
The US Dollar so far has held the 88-90 low mark on DXY but certainly has plenty of clouds above. The yield advantage that gave us a stronger dollar has returned to a degree and growth in Japan & Europe stinks when put in comparison to the USA so we would not be surprised to see a counter trend rally that no one seems to be positioned to see. This may be a reason why Gold & Silver have not held their rallies & other big bulls in grains/Foods/Oil have faded a bit lately…..hard to trust the dollar with a stimulus package & 18 million receiving assistance but sometimes the market surprises traders. If it busts under support at 88-90…bar the door Katie…because the 20% dollar drop being predicted will look much more real and popular. We have levels on the Euro, Yen Aussie & Canadian $$ plus the BP that we believe are very important which we share with subscribers weekly in our updates. The international markets (particularly EM) has benefited from the weaker dollar so if that dynamic is to pause one might conclude a corresponding pause in the bull runs will occur as the overseas trades may be a bit crowded. Reverting back toward the mean is natural at some point and we may be approaching that reality in the next 30-90 days….if next week we see sizeable weakness in Europe, Emerging Markets, Asia & Latin America (started already?)..then some trimming may be in order. We follow specific regional international markets for our subscribers each week.
Crude Oil/Natural Gas
The oil/energy stocks have been losing altitude as demand fears and supply concerns have resurfaced (poorer countries want to pump for the $$$). We got a failure at 54 WTI this week and if we get a 40 handle in the weeks to come it could be problematic…..long term moving averages that we follow still should support markets on any pullbacks and those who agree with our long held longer view should scale in on any lower prices.. the combination or low natural gas prices domestically with the high prices overseas and in Asia has led us to be bullish on LNG for a long time…despite potential backing and filling.. we remain so…subscribers get our focus list weekly.
Gold Silver Copper Platinum BitCoin
We told you Gold failed at $1950 area & Silver failed around $28 and those are the levels that if surpassed would put those 2 metals in a position to accelerate….longer term they should take them out but if we take out Gold $1800-$1750 and Silver $24-$22 on the downside then the timetable for such a move is extended. Some Elliott Wavers are suggesting a low in early Feb followed by rally and then a pullback into June and then a rally to rip your face off going into late 2021. We follow individual metal shares & broad based ETF’s for our subscribers which includes updates on key ones. Platinum is interesting to us for a number of reasons..the scarcity of supplies…the industrial value and most important is the relative uncrowded trade as compared to Gold& Silver…which could spell lots of volatility as should interest increase (in our opinion it will) & be met with buying volume..a recipe for a tangible asset to appreciate could occur….many ways to approach it…Copper prices got bouncy as supply demand news changed a bit…prices being extended always contains a risk of reverting back toward the mean so further sell of could lead to some acceleration….the stocks we follow in copper have been big winners and taking some off the table or defensive tactics may be appropriate if prices buckle. We told you BitCoin can have 30%-50% corrections along the way & suggested that the 40-50 area on GBTC could be a neighborhood for that to occur (in 2 weeks we got to ballpark 48 and pulled back to 31 or a 35% DROP!)…..is the pull back over?…maybe as the year after halving is supposed to be gang busters (3X?) but as e told you 95% of supplies held by 2% of accounts means lousy liquidity….so despite marquee names aligning themselves with it…we maintain dollar cost averaging and risk capital be used…if stocks drop maybe 20-25 can be had…..we update subscribers weekly.
Soybeans Sugar Coffee
Soybeans which we have been keen on since 8 bucks had a short term blow off top last week to about 14.50 (reversion to the mean) and got good news (for the bears) out of Argentina which led to mass selling culminating Friday with about 60 cents drop….should have some support at former highs at 12-11-10…ditto corn & wheat (reversion to the mean)….one Ag Market that is soaring is Live Cattle as the high corn prices kept cattle out as the expense to feed them became too great (2.5%+ rally Friday)..eat fish:):) Sugar & to a lesser extent Coffee followed what we talked about generally about commodities as they went on a big rally….way above LT moving averages.. are reverting to their mean. When markets make parabolic; we suggest if you’re in scale out of positions or scale into defensive tactics like covered writes, collars, married puts, and options as replacement trades. Subscribers can submit questions on this and other areas for response. How Can You Be a Subscriber?…..shoot us an email at the email listed above
REMEMBER.. There is a substantial risk of loss in short term trading and option trading and it is not right for everyone. Consult your brokerage firm, broker /advisor to determine your own suitability. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Use Risk Capital Only.