Jim Kenney
Author Archives: Jim Kenney
Jim Kenney
Stock Market-Has Your Information Provider Ever Suggested Portfolio Protection? Why? Read More
October 21 2022 Option Professor Observations & Opinions
The Option Professor has encouraged investors to LEARN about ways to PROTECT your portfolio from DECLINES and Upside surprises for MORE THAN 2 YEARS. The reason it became so OBVIOUS that asset values (stocks & bonds) were ripe for decline starting last November was the the Fed said they were starting on tightening cycle. It also coincided with a PEAK in the M2 money supply which when it’s declining asset prices can follow just as they rose when M2 was soaring 2019-2021. We have been in this investment arena since Volker so we know the consequences of runaway inflation on rates & asset values. The main reason is that VALUATIONS contract as the rate of interest is a sizeable part of the calculation.
The big question is….Why didn’t your information provider not explain the details of how some types of portfolio insurance may be warranted and acceptable? The standard line is that the bond side of your asset allocation provides an offset to the risk on the stock side EXCEPT if rates are rising AND stocks are falling such as in 2022. This year 80-20 60-40 50-50 40-60 asset allocations have all been hammered,
WE STILL encourage investors to get our PDF Reports on Protecting Portfolios from Decline and UPSIDE surprises AND Our technical indicators we use to determine market direction & 1-on-1 Markets Review Now the question is whether we take out SPX 3550-3600 or will we be able to get a huge rally toward the high end of the current range of SPX 4200 as we head into 2 more Fed meetings & CPI’s & Jobs Reports
Call Us at 702-873-8038…Talk with Us…Ask Your Questions…Information From an Informed Source
The Option Professor- Graduate Boston College-Trained-The Options Institute-35+yrs Knowledge-Share
Give it A Try! Stocks-Bonds-Energy-Gold-Crypto -International and More!
Talk With You Soon
The Option Professor
Remember All investing involves risk and it is not right for everyone. CONSULT YOUR BROKERAGE FIRM-broker to determine your own suitability and risk tolerance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information and opinions are provided for informational purposes only It is NOT advice
Stock Market-Sometimes A Broken Record Is The Best Music You Should Be Listening To. Read This
October 15 2022 Option Professor Opinions and Observations
We have provided our reader a tremendous amount of valuable INSIGHTS & OPINIONS for FREE for a very long time. These insights have been regarding the STOCK MARKET. We have said for a very LONG time that a TOP was made at SPX 4800 and a REVERSION to the mean (our long term moving averages) was in the cards which is EXACTLY what happened. We cited FED tightening (started in Nov 2021) and VALUATION contraction as the main culprits. We said if you want SAFETY consider ROLLING a 0-24 month or 0-12 month TREASURY BILLS LADDER. This is EXACTLY what has occurred and a great place to hide. The GROWTH TO VALUE Ratio told us to favor VALUE Dec 2021-GROWTH May 2022 & VALUE August ’22
What INSIGHTS have you been getting and how’s that working out for ya????
We told readers that the BOND MARKET hit a probable generational PEAK (low yields) in March 2020 and the stupid era of NEGATIVE yielding bonds ($17 trillion globally at one point) was OVER and yields would be rising so a TREASURYLADDER mentioned above would best PRESRVE your principal and give INCOME.
What INSIGHTS have you been getting on your bond portfolio or your 60-40 and how’s that working out?
We told you the US DOLLAR was going to RISE due to our RATE ADVANTAGE and stronger ECONOMY. This has led to a collapse in the Yen Euro and British Pound and Emerging Market and other currencies. We said that we SUSPECT the COMMODITIES markets PEAKED this year in Gold- Oil- Grains-Crypto as the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index FAILED to take out the 2008 HIGHS after 2 attempts earlier this year. GLOBAL collapse of money supply creation and higher costs of money also has been a not so silent drag.
What INSIGHTS have you been getting on Oil-Gold-Fertilizers- Crypto & how’s that working out for you?
RIGHT NOW- We believe in OUR INSIGHTS on WHEN legitimate TURNS in many MARKETS may occur.
We have been ENCOURAGING YOU to get the PDF Reports on PROTECTING Portfolios Against Market DECLINES & UPSIDE surprises and OUR Technical Indicators WE use to Determine Market Directions. We also have ENCOURAGED you to REVIEW Your MARKETS & STRATEGIES using our INSIGHTS & Indicators
The Option Professor- Graduate Boston College- Trained at The Options Institute- 35-Yrs. of Knowledge
Call us at 702-873-8038…We believe in MANAGING RISK….We believe in SHARING OUR KNOWLEDGE
We don’t do this for free but we’re pretty darn close….One-Time $99 bucks…Fresh Look-Informed Source
Give it A Try! You’re Going To Like the Way it Works!
Talk With You Soon,
The Option Professor
REMEMBER All investing involves risk of loss and it is not right for everyone. CONSULT YOUR BROKERAGE FIRM-Broker to determine your own risk tolerance and suitability. Past Performance is not indicative of future results. Information and opinions are provided for informational purposes only It is NOT advice.
Stock Market-Long Term Bull Trend Has Broken-How Can It Turn Around & Resume? Must Read!
October 8 2022 Option Professor Opinions & Observations
Hello Everyone…This week we got more evidence that the consumer is employed, has money, is spending and it will take a lot more than a 3% Fed Funds rate to slow this thing after such an expansion of money and credit coming into this year. We told you in the QUICK ALERT that SPX 3810 was the last moving average we use (the 200 week average is at SPX 3595) and that broke last month. We said that would be the logical place for RESISTANCE (failure) which was EXACTLY what happened. This follows our calls this year that when the VIX hits 35+ and we are way UNDER our moving averages a ferocious rally may lie ahead (also EXACTLY what happened.) Earlier this year; We also said that the SPX had RESISTANCE (failure) at SPX 4540-4350-4150 based on moving averages and Fibonacci retracements (Very ACCURATE data).
So ; Why Are You Waiting to Contact Us at [email protected] or Call Us at 702-873-8038?? Get PDF Reports-How to Protect Portfolios- PDF Reports on Market Direction- 1 on 1 Review of Markets
The title of this piece is that the Stock Market Long Term Uptrend has broken and what is needed to get back on the horse (Does the Fed want you back on the horse?). OUR DATA tells us that the SPX 3804-4143 and 4176 needs to be EXCEEDED to occur to get month over month statements to not look like a loss parades. The QQQ (Tech-Growth) needs to see 301-333-326 EXCEEDED to turn that ship around. Regarding the IWM (small caps); we need to see 185-192-204 EXCEEDED to increase odds of a bull call.
What could cause these turnaround to occur? TRUTHFULLY…Who Knows??… Our guess…the Dollar will need to turn…The 10 Yr Treasury Yield rise will have to abate….and BOTH those markets are VERY overbought so we believe it will happen eventually. Why Guess?? With big money…wait for price evidence The SHOW ME STATE (Missouri) philosophy has kept us from chasing bear market rallies & losing money
Why are prices of markets having such a hard time sustaining advances?? We believe there are 2 SIMPLE answers to that question. #1 The M2 Money Supply has been COLLAPSING ( in fact Global Currency growth way down). In fact; the M2 Money Growth is UNDER the inflation rate & some call this the DANGER Zone where sometimes financial accidents can occur. This means LIQUIDITY is WAY Down (BOE) #2 The Fed is HIKING & DOING QT in an attempt to undo the RIDICULOUS overaction ($9 Trill) to COVID.
Markets don’t go straight up or down & people don’t get hit by the train they see coming at them. NEXT WEEK; we get EARNINGS from the banks INFLATION NEWS (PPI CPI) and CONSUMER (retail sales) Plenty of Geo-political hot spots…Liquidity Risks…General Chaos waiting in the wings so Caveat Emptor
We told readers for years that a 0-24 month ladder in Treasuries is a way to have relative stability of principal and rising income to RIDE OUT this Asset Deflation. OF COURSE…who but us have suggested that idea….EXPENSIVE Newsletters that tout 100’s of stocks an the cherry pick winners?? How about investment advisors & firms who charge 2% annually to “manage” your account? Let’s get real……There are no fees to buy Treasuries so who’s going to push them…in reminds us of water, vegetables, fish and $10 bucks a month gym memberships….some of the best things you can do in life really don’t cost much
Can OUR information can Help YOU? Email Us at [email protected] or Call Us 702-873-8038
Talk With You Soon,
The Option Professor
REMEMBER All investing involves risk of loss and it is not right for everyone. CONSULT YOUR BROKERGE FIRM/broker to determine your own risk tolerance and suitability. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information and opinions are provided for informational purposes only It is NOT advice.
Stocks-Bonds-Commodities- Chaos- ?? Liquidity Central Banks Panic So Where to Now? Read This!
Oct 1 2022 Option Professor Observations & Opinions
We went on a wonderful holiday during Fed Hiking Week to South & Central America as to us it was obvious that the trends are down, the Fed is NOT kidding around and catching falling knives gets bloody.
We have to ENCOURAGING YOU to learn about PROTECTING Your portfolios against DECLINES & UPSIDE surprises and INVITED you to get & learn such tactics in our PDF Report for the LAST 2 YEARS!
LAST YEAR; we spoke of VALUATION having to come down as interest rates RISING will CONTRACT valuations ( which means stock prices drop. We said the DOLLAR wold RISE as our rates and economy blows away the rest and this would hurt MULTINATIONALS ( see AAPL NKE SBUX lately?) We have also explained ROLLING a 0-24 month TREASURY ladder since 2020 March (top of Bond prices) would be a good place to have relative stable principal (shorter duration) and a INCREASE in your yield (now 4.2%) backed by the USA. We have said that IF you must be in stocks the GROWTH to VALUE Ration we follow gave a SWITCH to VALUE (staples-utils ect) in NOV 2021 and a SWITCH to GROWTH in MAY 2022 and in AUGUST 2022 SWITCH back to VALUE. To date; these have been accurate assessments.
We also said to STAY AWAY from Gold unless it could sustain ABOVE $1850-$1900 which again has been accurate. We said that Crude Oil $131 was way overbought and so were ENERGY stocks & we saw a BIG DROP in shares & oil into the 70’s recently. RIGHT NOW- Oil is a crowded trade and i in a trading range of 92-65 in our view. A move ABOVE 82-92-100 (closed at 78+) needed to turn the ship which could happen BUT if we fail this stampede into energy stocks may look like the stampede into AAPL above 175. ENERGY & AGRICULTURE are being touted as the place to hide out-did we see their high points already?
There is Chaos in Global Markets (BOE flinches, Global Inflation & Central Banks Hikes, Currency & Germany Energy War-Ukraine. Central Banks are making it up as they go along which has led to BAD liquidity in financial markets and the money supply tanking an QT ain’t helping. Do we FALL into the abyss with SPX under 3800 or do we get a RALLY as the Dollar corrects & Treasury yields back off? NOV-DEC???
What Markets are YOU interested in? How’s Information YOU got this year working? How old are YOU?
It is STUNNING to us that more of YOU have not CONTACTED US to get our CURRENT views & opinions
For $99 (Modest) you get PDF Reports on HEDGING Up & Down-Our Technicals-1 hour 1 on 1 Education
Send Your Contact Info Email/Phone-Email Us at [email protected]…This $99 stuff is over soon
The Option Professor-Graduate Boston College-Trained The Options Institute-35 yrs+ Knowledge-SHARE
Give it a Try! You’re Going to Like the Way it Works!
Talk Soon,
The Option Professor
REMEMBER All investing involves risk of loss and it is not right for everyone. CONSULT YOUR BROKERAGE FIRM/broker to determine your own suitability & risk tolerance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information & opinions are provided for informational purposes only. It is NOT advice.
Stock Market- Pain & A Hard Landing? Do You Really Want to Fight the Fed- Read Our Views!
September 17 2022 Option Professor Inc Opinions & Observations
Hello Everyone…We’re on our way to a week long holiday and most of what we have been saying has come to pass. Why more of you are not contacting us to glean our insight is an unsolved mystery?????
For a LONG time we have been telling investors in STOCKS about HEDGING downside risk and upside spikes. Has that been a bad idea??? For a LONG time we been telling investors who are in BONDS that a 0-24 Treasury ladder gives good INCOME and low duration risk. Has that been a bad idea?? For a long time we have warned investors that the run up in COMMODITIES in 2022 may be a top. Hs that been a bad idea??? For a long time we have told investors that the DOLLAR would be strong due to our yield advantage and strong economy. Has that been a bad idea??? For a long time we have told investors to NOT FIGHT THE FED in that their goal is lower inflation and slower growth & spending which at some point can mean lower earnings & tighter P/E ratios. Has that been a bad idea? Who’s views are better??
The truth is no NEWLETTER or FORECASTER will tell you to go to short term Treasury Bills and wait this tightening cycle out. Every time we get a bear market rally they can return to the old mantra of if you get out you’ll never get back in. Truth be told after the RIDICULOUS expansion of money and credit there is a better than even chance that 1962-1982 may repeat itself and the indexes may go net nowhere for a long time as we work off the hangover of zero interest rates which were a joke & has now been found out.
No doubt; still plenty of opportunities to be had but the game of shooting fish in a barrel is long gone!
Contact Us at [email protected] or call 702-873-8038 and let us help educate & inform you.
The Option Professor-Graduate Boston College-Trained at The Options Institute-35+yrs Knowledge-Share
Give it a Try! You’re Going to Like the Way it Works Questions Answered Education Informed Source
Talk Soon
The Option Professor
Remember All investing involves risk of loss and it is not right for everyone. CONSULT YOUR BROKERAGE FIRM/broker to determine your own risk tolerance and suitability Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information and opinions are provided for informational purposes only. It is NOT advice
Stock Market- Rebound-Tank-Rebound-What Happens Between Now & Early Oct? Must Read!
September 10 2022 Option Professor Observations & Opinions
There is a lot going on but cutting to the chase we told everyone in our ALERTS that SPX 4350 area was a SELL ZONE and 3900 SPX area was a BUY ZONE and everything else is conversation! We have rate HIKES coming from all sides (Fed-Aussie-ECB- BOE -delayed in respect of The Queen’s passing and many more around the globe. The point is the WORLD is hiking to PROTECT TEIR CURRENCIES and to fight inflation which may be abating but far from going away. Energy prices rebounded, China economy slows, and interest rates yields eased a bit off their recent run up to test or exceed the highs. The US Dollar rolled over a bit but our economic strength and yield advantage makes calling a definitive top a bit dicey now.
If you have been listening to us; the GYRATIONS in the SPX have made sense and been quite easy to comprehend as the FIBONACCI retracements among other things have made the turns understandable. The front end of the yield curve (which we suggested for 2 years!) has been a great place to get ever INCREASING yield without duration risk to kill your principal. The SWITCH we suggested from GROWTH to VALUE in Nov Dec 2021 followed by a SWITCH back in May 2022 and SWITCH back in Aug 2022 has been great historically….that’s Tech to Staples/Dividends back to Tech and now back to Staples-Dividends.
When & if the Dollar has a legitimate turn (has hit our target around 110 with BP Euro Yen Decades Lows); the other markets like crypto & Gold & Silver may see a legitimate TURN-Dollar OVERBOUGHT-Gold OVERSOLD?? We told you the 2013-2019 time frame wore out commodities so we’re concerned a repeat.
The bullishness and speculation that comes out of the closet every time SPX rallies is suggestive to us that we may fail UNDER SPX 4200 and accelerate to the downside by early October. We don’t play hunches so we will see if we get price evidence supporting our suspicion. The Fed is resolute-consumers are spending
The OPTION PROFESSOR invite you to get the PDF Reports & get the 1 on 1 hour meeting-We Can Help!
#1 How to PROTECT Portfolios Against down & Up #2 Our BEST Indicators #3 Educate & Review-1 hour
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The OPTION PROFESSOR-Graduate Boston College-Trained-Options Institute-35 Yrs Knowledge to Share!
Give it A Try! You’re Going to Like the Way it Works!
Talk Soon,
The Option Professor
Remember All investing involve the risk of loss and it is not right for everyone. CONSULT YOUR BROKERAGE FIRM/broker to determine your own suitability and risk tolerance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information & opinions provided are for informational purposes only It is NOT advice.
Stock Market- The Option Professor’s Tuesday’s Quick Alert Said It All…Now You Should Read It!
August 26 2022 Option Professor Opinions & Observations
IMPORTANT! Are YOU NEW to options-markets-READ THIS! EXPERIENCED-not happy-READ THIS!
Being summertime and what is occurring is what we have told investors about all year long; we will be as Jay Powell said brief and to the point. The inflation rate must decline as far as the Fed mandate is truly concerned( do you really think we can sustain an economy with prices on homes, gas, food, jobs going nuts ad infinitum?). DON”T FIGHT THE FED…so this week when we went toward the 200 day moving average AND hawkish Powell was a slam dunk…we reminded investors that the first attempt to break it FAILS and we have retrace OVER 250 SPX points off the highs in 3 DAYS! The Treasury rates are JUMPING and the FED as usual is playing catch up to market rates. BULLS say this is a dip to be bought as inflation will tank and jobs will be lost and the Fed will slow to a snails pace after September. Hey…anything can happen BUT as you go around and see prices up everywhere…who’s gonna cut unless forced to? It used to be lower for longer when the Fed was easing…so since they’re draining the balance sheet and halting the money supply is it so hard to understand it will be higher for longer & Jobs lost-possible profits hit?? We told you Tues that the VALUATIONS had jumped to about 19X on SPX and 27X on Nasdaq of 15 & 21. NOW you have higher rates potentially hitting P/E’s and a demand hit desired by the Fed hitting Earnings! RIGHT NOW! A trade range may develop (4350-3950) until Sept 21-if the Fed sez pace to slow-stocks ok. HOWEVER! If we get EARNINGS cut in Sept AND we test take out 3.50% on 10 yr Treasuries-more “pain”!
We are looking where the opportunities may be in energy (shortages) food (drought) & China (stimulus)
You should contact us an get our PDF Reports so you can LEARN about hedging & market direction views
Go to optionprofessor.com… submit email & phone….Get PDF Reports & REVIEW Markets YOU are at RISK
The Option Professor-Graduate Boston College-Trained at The Options Institute and 35+ yrs Knowledge
We Can Help! NEW to the Markets/options or EXPERIENCED & want a FRESH LOOK from Informed Source
Give Us A Try! You’re Going To Like the Way it Works!
All the Best!
The Option Professor
REMEMBER All investing involve the risk of loss and it is not right for all investors. CONSULT YOUR BROKEAGE FIRM/broker to determine your own risk tolerance and suitability. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information & opinions provided for informational purposes It is NOT advice.
Stock Market-Stocks Rollover? In January to June Perception Became Reality-Again? Read More…..
August 20 2022 Option Professor Opinions & Observations
In the movie Wall Street; there is a scene with an insightful quote by Gordon Gekko talking to Bud Fox when describing how he made money on his painting. He says the Illusion (perception) has become Reality and the more real it becomes the more they will pay. In the first half of the year the Illusion or perception was that rates would rise substantially and valuations would compress. As the first half of 2022 unfolded; the perception or illusion became more and more real and the more real it became the more selling and shorting occurred. This was a classic case of the aforementioned happening on the downside.
In June; the FED hiked 75 basis points and Powell made a comment that “at some point the Fed would slow the pace of rate hikes” which he probably said so that markets would some hope and not panic while the Fed took 7 weeks off and cause systemic problems. However; that is not the perceptive result. The Market’s perception in the last 2 months has been the Fed is about done and inflation a year out will be close to 2% and the terminal rate for fed funds is about 3.25%. We are about to see if that is reality.
THIS WEEK we got retail sales which were up .7% ex gas prices BUT were UP 2.8% in online sales and we all know that’s where a lot of shopping is done…so the consumer spends. We also saw the jobs numbers are still in line with a strong jobs market so consumers have money to spend and even if they don’t we see from credit card data they are running up quite the tab there as well. Where’s the DEMAND faltering?
In the NEXT 4 WEEKS; we will have Jackson Hole and the next Fed hike. The hikes that the Fed has done so far has NOT yielded the expected result IN FACT monetary conditions have loosened (HY spreads tighten, asset values UP 20%++, Wages up, spending up, and inflation still in the 8%-9% range-a loser.
The perception that began on a Fed comment was becoming real due to the fact the Fed was on hiatus and stocks have been bid up because of it & short covering at the 3rd highest level in 10 years (GS data)
In the next 4 weeks; we will see if that PERCEPTION will turn to the perception of the first half of 2022 and if it does the SPX 4350-4400 and VIX 19 range could turn to selling as that perception becomes more real
The OPTION PROFESSOR Encourages YOU to get the PDF Reports & the 1 on 1 Review of YOUR MARKETS
Go to optionprofessor.com….submit contact info…Get 1. Explanation of Hedging 2. Our Best Indicators
IMPORTANT!-If you are NEW to the markets OR Are UNHAPPY with current services….Let’s Review Things!
The Option Professor-Graduate of Boston College-Trained-The Options Institute CBOE-35+yrs Knowledge
Give It A Try! You’re Going to Like the Way It Works!
All the Best!
The Option Professor
Stock Market-Prices Explode to the UPSIDE on Sigh of Relief-Throw Caution to Wind? Read It!
August 12 2022 Option Professor Opinions & Observations
Since we hit the lows in the stock market in mid June; there has been NO LIQUIDITY on the offer (sell) side of the market…..Why would there be?….if you held you stocks….you were underwater and living the mantra “NEVER GET OUT”…..if you were out of the market…..you had NOTHING TO SELL….if you were a trader….you were probably SHORT the stock market (particularly ARKK-Tech companies). Since the middle of June; we got Q2 EARNINGS which by no means were world beaters (some the polar opposite). BUT they were NOT HORRIFIC and everybody’ working and making money and spending on goods AND services. We then got INFLATION DATA that showed Inflation was “SLOWING” on both the consumer side (CPI) and the wholesale side (PPI) which was received like the Second Coming! In the last 8 WEEKS; we have cleaned out the shorts, got sideline money mobilized (VIX UNDER 25 breeds confidence), and put smiles back on investors faces replacing panic and frowns. A classic “FACE RIPPER” bear market rally fueled on technicals and a SIGH of RELIEF that any recession will be in 2023 (EARNINGS OK), the Fed will SLOW HIKES, the break in Inflation will ACCELERATE, and the JOBS market is BULLETPROOF. All BULLISH!
Is it Time to THROW CAUTION to the WIND? The funny thing about markets is they tend to SURPRISE Us! From January to June; stock prices tanked as investor hope was lost. July-August; Investors hope is back
Here’s the rub….
#1. The 200 day moving averages are pointing DOWN on both the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Nasdaq (QQQ)…..they also LOOM ABOVE at SPX 4350 area (also a Fibonacci retracement of SPX 4800 to 3630 or 1170 points X 61.8% or 723 + 3630 =4353). The QQQ 200 day moving average is at 343 area ( a Fibonacci retracement of 408 to 269 = 355). These may be DIFFICULT LEVELS to exceed and should be MONITORED
#2. The VIX is UNDER 20 which has occurred a number of times in the last 9 months and did not end well. In late December/early January; the VIX was about 16 and the SPX was about 4800….within a months we saw SPX near 4200. In late March/early April; the VIX hit about 18 and the SPX was 4600 and the next month we saw SPX 3800. In early June (after Memorial day rally); the VIX about 24 and SPX 4200…later that month VIX hit 35 and SPX saw 3630. RIGHT NOW-VIX 19 and SPX into 4250-4400 Zone…next month?
#3. Everybody is speaking for the Fed and seem to know that all waves will break their way. Somehow with a $5 Trillion rally in asset prices, full employment, 8% to 9% INFLATION….slower hikes & cuts loom?? The Fed plans: DRAINING LIQUIDITY (QT) & do a RATE HIKE in September…thin/volatile markets follow?Anything can happen…but if there is an Achilles heel for the bulls…this belief of the Fed is done is risky.
#4 BUYBACKS by corporations; in our view, can be at times where they should be the LEAST confident. In 2018; they bought back $1.1 Trillion (last Fed tightening) followed by $918 Billion-2019 right before DROP In 2021; there was RECORD $1.2 Trillion in Buybacks and this Year 2022 the plans are already OVER $800B! What does that mean for 2023? Maybe nothing…but it does seem their boat legs can lead to rough seas:):
The next month SEPTEMBER may be a wild one for EITHER Up or Down Markets so Caveat Emptor-Ready
The OPTION PROFESSOR has Encouraged YOU to get the PDF Report that helps explain HEDGING to You. The PDF REPORT-“How to HEDGE Against Market DECLINES and Upside SURPRISES” helps EDUCATE You!
Go to optionprofessor.com…submit email/phone…we’ll Explain How to Get the Report-Sent to Your Inbox!
Give It a Try! You’re Going To Like the Way It Works!
All the Best,
The Option Professor
REMEMBER All investing involves a risk of loss and it is not right for everyone. CONSULT YOUR BROKERAGR FIRM/broker to determine your own suitability and risk tolerance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information and opinions are provided for informational purposes only.
It is NOT advice.
Stocks-Everyone Is Working & Everyone Is Spending-SPX 4350 or Fed Stops It? Read It!
August `6 2022 Option Professor Opinions & Observations
We’re 6 weeks away from the next Fed decision but a couple of things are becoming more obvious. The “neutral” is way ABOVE the 2.25%-2.50% the Fed said it was and to curb this kind of price/wage spiral; the Fed has to go to near 4% and maybe far beyond as we said before PUTTING ON A TRADE (adding $5 Trillion to the balance sheet) is a lot easier than the UNWIND ($90 billion a month way too slow). This week we heard ISM services was supposed to be decline to 53 and came in about 57. This told us the JOBS number would be an UPSIDE surprise as if services demand is huge they will need more people. So rather than 250K jobs it came in at MORE than TWO TIMES at 528K and the prior month was revised UP!! No need to candy coat it…3.5% rate…wages YOY up OVER 5%…participation dropped…where’s the Slack??
Truth is the Q2 earn and revenues are LOWER than 1 year ago but hardly the fall out of bed once feared. Here in lies the key to the future. We’re at 2.28 on SPX this year which puts us at about 18.5 X P/E. Next year is expected 2.45 X 18.5 =SPX 4410. The BULLS cite that the 10 yr Treasury will stay at 2.70% (33 P/E) and therefore SPX 20X P/E is ok value and that the employment pictures underwrites the earning forecast. Here’s the rub…if the Fed wants 2% inflation the 10 yr Treasury will go way past 2.70% (now at about 2.85%) and as the savings are depleted and credit cards are maxed (EOY); the consumer spending abates. Should this occur; repricing occurs. The Fed has picked a GREAT time to play HARDBALL. The deficits are LOW and the JOBS are HIGH…we got a rally restoring asset values….so hit it hard NOW while it’s sunny !
Being the OPTION PROFESSOR; we’ve kept our eyes on the VIX which BROKEDOWN on the break UNDER 25 and has now approached 20. We believe a mover OVER 25 VIX and AAPL UNDER 160-155=a rollover. The BULLS say that it’s all priced in, everybody’s in cash, earnings hold up, retail is out…UP UP & AWAY!? The BEARS say the parents (FED) are coming home in 6 weeks; even if we see SPX 4200-4400..it won’t last!
The OPTION PROFESSOR has ENCOURAGED YOU to get 2 PDF Reports with IMPORTANT INFORMATION!
#1 How to HEDGE Against Market DECLINES and Upside SURPRISES—Important for Risk Management #2 Our BEST TECHNICAL INDICATORS which we use to DETERMINE MARKET DIRECTION #3 Our FRESH LOOK at MARKETS YOU Take RISK Now—–Use OUR INDICATORS-We SHARE Our Opinions
Go to optionprofessor.com…submit your email & phone #….we will explain…..PDF’s SENT to YOUR INBOX
Many of you get newsletters & “tips”…..Why Not PACK YOUR OWN PARACHUTE?….Educate Yourself Now!
Option Professor-Graduate of Boston College-Trained at The Options Institute CBOE-35 Yrs of Knowledge
Give it a Try! You’re Going to Like the Wat it Works!
Thanks!
The Option Professor [email protected]
Remember All investing involves risk of loss and it is not right for everyone. CONSULT YOUR BROKERAGR FIRM/broker to determine your own suitability and risk tolerance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information and opinions are provided for informational purpose only.
It is NOT advice.