Stock Market- Rebound-Tank-Rebound-What Happens Between Now & Early Oct? Must Read!
September 10 2022 Option Professor Observations & Opinions
There is a lot going on but cutting to the chase we told everyone in our ALERTS that SPX 4350 area was a SELL ZONE and 3900 SPX area was a BUY ZONE and everything else is conversation! We have rate HIKES coming from all sides (Fed-Aussie-ECB- BOE -delayed in respect of The Queen’s passing and many more around the globe. The point is the WORLD is hiking to PROTECT TEIR CURRENCIES and to fight inflation which may be abating but far from going away. Energy prices rebounded, China economy slows, and interest rates yields eased a bit off their recent run up to test or exceed the highs. The US Dollar rolled over a bit but our economic strength and yield advantage makes calling a definitive top a bit dicey now.
If you have been listening to us; the GYRATIONS in the SPX have made sense and been quite easy to comprehend as the FIBONACCI retracements among other things have made the turns understandable. The front end of the yield curve (which we suggested for 2 years!) has been a great place to get ever INCREASING yield without duration risk to kill your principal. The SWITCH we suggested from GROWTH to VALUE in Nov Dec 2021 followed by a SWITCH back in May 2022 and SWITCH back in Aug 2022 has been great historically….that’s Tech to Staples/Dividends back to Tech and now back to Staples-Dividends.
When & if the Dollar has a legitimate turn (has hit our target around 110 with BP Euro Yen Decades Lows); the other markets like crypto & Gold & Silver may see a legitimate TURN-Dollar OVERBOUGHT-Gold OVERSOLD?? We told you the 2013-2019 time frame wore out commodities so we’re concerned a repeat.
The bullishness and speculation that comes out of the closet every time SPX rallies is suggestive to us that we may fail UNDER SPX 4200 and accelerate to the downside by early October. We don’t play hunches so we will see if we get price evidence supporting our suspicion. The Fed is resolute-consumers are spending
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